Why Does the Power of the Hard Money/Fiscal Austerity Orthodoxy Persist?

Doc K asks an important question on his blog this weekend – how, after all of these years of being dreadfully wrong, do the Austerians and inflationistas still garner so much attention?  I think it’s simple: The idea that inflation is always bad is very simple to digest (even though…

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Historical Monthly Stock Market Data is Pretty Useless

There’s an endless parade of articles and pundits today discussing the historical monthly returns of September.  It’s not a very good month historically.  But we see this stuff every few months.  In January the media will run with the “January effect”.  Then in May they’ll pump the “sell in May” story….

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Charlie Munger’s Investing Principles

“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger


Should the Wealthy Dislike “Soft Money” Policy?

The rich shouldn’t just thank the government for much of what’s occurred in the last 5 years. They should be begging for more of it.


World Inflation Makes 56-Month Low

Our world inflation proxy, which simply takes the equal-weighted, year-over-year change for 33 different countries CPI, hit its lowest level since November 2009.


Buying Insurance After a Disaster Strikes

“Investors are always fighting the last war, when in fact all crises are different.” – Harry Markowitz


How Framing Affects Investment Decisions & Outcomes

Let’s say you were given fifty-fifty odds of either winning $8 or $32. Not a bad deal, but let’s also assume you were given a fifty-fifty chance of losing either $8 or $32….

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Q&A – Ask me Anything

Here we go again. It’s the opportunity of a lifetime. You can ask me anything. Whether it’s how to kiss a girl properly, how to dance the tango, play the violin or any of the other things that I write about on a daily basis here. Actually, I don’t know how to do anything of the aforementioned things, but feel free to ask me some other stuff if you want to.


The Modern Day Widow Maker Trade

As treasury yields plunge again today to new 1-year lows (the 10 and 30-year treasury bond yields are both down 3bps to 2.33% and 3.07%, respectively), we are reminded of a popular trade over the last decade to short Japanese government bonds, which has aptly been named the “widow maker” trade.


John Cochrane Talks About the “Asset Swap”

I missed this nice piece in the WSJ by John Cochrane.  It’s a very balanced perspective of QE.  I particularly liked this section which will sound very familiar to regulars: “This policy is new and controversial. However, many arguments against it are based on fallacies. People forget that when the…

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Understanding Your Real, Real Returns

Thornburg Funds has a new report out on understanding your real, real returns and it’s fantastic.  I discuss this topic in detail in my book, but they do a much better job covering this than I do.  So go have a read. The chart below is super important.  Most people who get into investing…

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Three Things I Think I Think

1. Thanks.
2. Larry Swedroe drops the boom on John Hussman.
3. Morgan Housel tells it like it is.


In Pursuit of Past Performance

Morningstar had an interesting piece out this week about the alternative mutual fund universe. While Morningstar studies have shown that the most dependable predictor of future fund performance is low expenses, investors in this universe of funds aren’t following that advice:


Random Walking (But Only When it’s Convenient)

Okay, I am a little OCD so bear with me here.  Actually, if you plan on reading any of my work in the future you’ll have to bear with me for 30-50 more years since I assume this sort of griping will be a persistent trend given how badly I…

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Malkiel’s Mendacity

When politics masquerades as finance….