In our continuing effort to decipher the ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index we decided to explore what, in our opinion, looks more like a coincident indicator than a leading indicator.  This …

The latest monthly survey from the AAII shows that small investors increased their equity allocation despite the tumbling market.  This is in stark contrast to the recent State Street Survey …

The following paragraph from Jim Hamilton (viaYves Smith at Naked Capitalism) shows just what a poor monetary tool quantitative easing really is:
A key paragraph in a post on a new …

No dip in rail data this week. The strength in the ISM data yesterday appears to rhyme with the consistently strong readings in rail data

Well, I’m not going to lie – the ECRI has me utterly confused now.  At the market peak they were calling for sustained jobs growth, a continuation in the recovery …

Now, despite the string of disappointing US macroeconomic data, it appears to me that investors have become too bearish on the US growth outlook and too optimistic on the European. Most of Europe has basked in the German sunshine, with little or no fundamental justification.

The good news keeps on coming – the RBA released its commodity price index yesterday (here):

In this segment of bull vs bear Charles Biderman, the outspoken CEO of TrimTabs makes the bearish case while Dean Maki of Barclays makes the Bull case. Biderman says the economy is “slipping” while Maki maintains that the economy is unlikely to double dip:

The “Great Recession” that began in 2008 has had many nuances, some of which can only be seen in data with higher resolution than that provided by the BEA or NBER. Our day-by-day profile of consumer demand helps us understand triggering events while also making it clear that many recent changes in consumer behavior have begun to linger — much as the recession itself now appears to have done.

That’s the case Credit Suisse and the ECRI have been building over the last few months. The last two days have provided much needed relief to the bulls who were …

Credit Suisse upgraded the European banking sector citing 8 reasons why the banks now look attractive.

Today’s ISM report came in at a healthy clip of 56.3 – much better than the consensus estimate of 53.  Markets are breathing a sigh of relief after Chinese PMI …