myth

Why Do Americans Think Housing is Such a Good Investment?

The other day I posted this story citing a Gallup poll about how Americans think housing is the best possible investment out of most major asset classes. This is extremely strange considering how widespread the data is on real estate and its poor real, real returns.

bear

The Metamorphosis of the Bond Bears

How long does this story have to be wrong before we start to seriously reconsider whether the underlying narratives are based on anything remotely resembling the reality of our monetary system and our financial system in general?

roulette

A Better Buffett Bet….

Warren Buffett shouldn’t be searching for someone to explain the bear case on Berkshire. He should be looking for someone to explain why anyone should continue to hold his firm’s stock relative to a broader index. Now, THAT would make for a fair and interesting discussion.

bubble

David Einhorn: we are in a new Tech Bubble

Pretty interesting comments from the latest David Einhorn letter. The savvy hedge fund manager says we are indeed in a new tech bubble and has even formed an entirely new group of stocks in his fund that he has dubbed the “bubble basket”.

europe

Investing Across Asset Classes in Europe’s Recovery

Europe’s recovery is becoming reality. In our view, successful investing in the continent today requires a selective approach that exploits dislocations by focusing on return-seeking assets across stock and bond markets.

politics

Will Piketty’s “Capital” Actually Make a Policy Difference?

the real question is not whether the book is a smash hit (though Piketty’s publisher might disagree), but whether the book will actually steer the course of future policy. I am doubtful that his text has convinced policy makers either way.

Sands of Time

The Ubiquity of “Lost Decades”

Losses close to retirement have a dramatically disproportionate impact on retirement income portfolios. As so often happens, the risks are greater than we tend to appreciate.

Fail_WP

Update: Predicting CD Rates

it’s a lot easier to make good predictions about future macro conditions when you have a sound understanding of the monetary system as opposed to working from this mythological premise that drives so much of mainstream economic thinking these days.

future_binocular

Chart of the Day: Is the Expansion “Long in the Tooth”?

While we’re probably closer to the next recession than we are to the beginning of the recovery, it’s also important to remember that the business cycle seems to be getting longer and longer.

debt

Has US household Deleveraging Ended?

This column presents time-varying equilibrium estimates of the household debt-to-income ratio determined by economic fundamentals. Taking into account the latest available data, the estimates suggest that the household deleveraging process may have ended at the end of 2013.

house_of_cards

Is There a UK Housing Bubble?

Home prices in the UK continue to rise to new highs, exceeding the pre-recession peak. The price increases started in London and have now spread nationally. Many families are quickly being priced out of the housing market. Some are calling it a bubble.

business-crystal-ball-future-binocular

Did Market Monetarists Accurately Predict Low Inflation?

Correct conclusions don’t always mean correct reasoning.