think

Three Things I Think I Think

I’m pretty sure I think all of these things. Let me know what you think you think about the things I think I think.

rear-view-mirror

Historical Market Comparisons Are Meaningless

For now, the “bullish case” remains alive and well. The media will go on berating those heretics who dare to point out the risks that prevail. However, the one simple truth is”this time is indeed different.” When the crash ultimately comes the reasons will be different than they were in the past – only the outcome will remain same.

Macro10

My Time on the Sell Side

“Wall street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.” – Warren Buffett

hope

Still Buying the (Golden) American Dream…

This recent Gallup survey on expected future returns of asset prices is pretty interesting. It shows that most Americans still think that owning a home is the best way to generate a high return in the future:

blind

Chart of the Day: Showing up Late to the Party

The Investment Company Institute (ICI) began tracking flows into equity funds in 2007 which I have overlaid with the investor psychology cycle. In this manner, you can witness investor behavior in “real time.”

question-mark-money

5 Good Questions with Terry Odean

Terrance Odean is the Rudd Family Foundation Professor of Finance at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. Today I ask (in bold) and Terry answers what I hope are Five Good Questions as part of my longstanding series by that name (see links below).

bubble

Goldman Sachs: 6 Reasons the Stock Market isn’t a Bubble

The recent dip in the stock market has people talking about a bubble and a potential big decline in the market again.

strategy1

Is Active Investment Management Dying?

This piece at FactSet asked an important question: “is active investment management dead?” As more evidence of the difficulties of active investment management points investors in the direction of “passive” funds, we have to wonder if active investment management is beginning to die off. I don’t think so. Here’s why.

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Has Inflation in the US Bottomed Out?

Is inflation on the verge of a breakout to the upside?

rollercoaster

Why Does the Cycle of Fear and Greed Persist?

“Truth be told, if you keep buying high and selling low, you should stay out of the stock market, because you’re losing money. Your primary goal as an investor should be not to lose money.” – Carl Richards

pragcap_book

Pragmatic Capitalism – First Reviews…

Some of you may already know this, but my first book “Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance” is set to publish in July. We’re still in the late stages of production, but some of the first reviews are trickling in. This one is from Publisher’s Weekly:

business-crystal-ball-future-binocular

How well do Economists Predict Turning Points?

Forecasters have a poor reputation for predicting recessions. This column quantifies their ability to do so, and explores several reasons why both official and private forecasters may fail to call a recession before it happens.