10 Reasons to be Bullish in 2013
I stole this from Barry Ritholtz’s site (via Michael Belkin):
Top 10 Reasons to be Bullish in 2013
1) Congress and the Administration have spending, taxes and the budget deficit completely under control. Fiscal imbalances have been solved and won’t be a problem for the economy or markets anymore.
2) S&P500 earnings are declining and everyone knows stocks go up when earnings go down.
3) Hedge funds have their highest stock market exposure since just before the last time the S&P500 tumbled 50%. 10,000 hedge funds controlling $2 trillion can’t be wrong.
4) NYSE margin debt of $327 billion is the highest since Feb 2008. Forthcoming margin calls like those of 2008 are bullish, because leveraged investors will be forced to liquidate into a declining market.
5) Taxes are going up and government spending growth is going down – which Keynesian economists agree stimulates economic growth, corporate earnings and the stock market.
6) Bernanke has deliberately squeezed investors into equities and the Fed has a perfect contrary record at preventing the last two 50% S&P500 bear markets during 2001-02 and 2007-09. Don’t fight the Fed.
7) Goldman is in bed with the Fed and bullish GS bigwigs say buy cyclicals. Don’t fight the squid.
8) Apple’s gargantuan $160 billion market cap loss (-24%) since September 19th is a generational stimulative event, since AAPL was a top 10 holding of 800 hedge funds and mutual funds at the end of Q3 2012.
9) Even if the market somehow goes down, every other portfolio manager will be down too – so your fund’s investors won’t care and won’t redeem their money.
10) 90% of market strategists and analysts polled by Reuters have a higher end-2013 market forecast. The sell-side consensus is always right and since they anticipate bear markets with pinpoint precision – this is an enormous green light.
Cullen Roche
Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.
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15 Comments
Time to back up the truck and load up on some very high beta stocks! Maybe a 3 times leveraged ETF would do the trick?
Larry you should buy a 3x inverse VIX etf on margin. That should work. No worries.
Man, you sucked me in with this one. I was prepared to read some ACTUAL sunny outlooks…
LOL.
I am already all in. Need to visit all my neighbors to get a few loans that my banks have refused.
Dumb question here, but I assume you guys are kidding? I have a co-worker who, during the 2008 meltdown, was actually buying 3x inverse S&P 500 ETFs. He would make a lot of noise when he made some money on it… but after a while I didn’t hear much from him. Much much later he told me that he found out the hard way that with a fund like that… even though the market is mostly going down, you can still lose money on it. I guessed exactly what he was talking about… and he confirmed it: if on day 1 the market goes up 33%, and the next day it goes down 90%… you still lose!… because day 1 wiped you out, and you got nothing on day 2! (that’s an extreme example, but that was the gist of it).
TOM, Thanks for sharing, I also partook in the EXTREME #x ETF’s FAZ and FAS during the crisis. I lost a few shekels and would not recommend to the average investor/saver. But I would recommend to a gambler.
Which is what I did was gamble and honestly I gambled what I could afford to loose so no biggie. But I do fear others are not so lucky or blessed.
Cowpoke, thanks… that’s interesting. That’s what I found myself doing when I opened a brokerage through my IRA. My intent was to let myself sell ETFs FAST if I felt jittery, but otherwise treat them like mutual funds… but what I ended up doing was using it like a casino, but like you, w/ just a small fraction of my funds. Still I found myself obsessing over whether I could make a few hundred bucks each day or not… compulsive personality disorder I guess. I too eventually got burned on SLV, so I had to stop w/ those. I don’t think I’d ever have the stomach for the “EXTREME” .. whatever funds. You need a set of brass ones for that!
Leveraged ETFs are only workable with day trades – no thanks.
Anyone know where I can borrow against a Life Insurance policy I have so I can invest more?
Good news though from Japan.
They’re going to be buying Euro bonds.
Of course that will hurt the dollar, hasten hyperinflation and take gold to a level no one here will believe.
Yes, all good.
are pigs flying too?
Too late, people have been puzzled by gold since $1,000 an ounce.
Fuel for the Casino!
Churn baby churn!
#11 By Lowering Guidance, Stocks will be able to beat.
Love The Big Picture! Barry’s site and yours are the only two i read every day!