Comments on: 15-20 YEARS OF DEFLATION? http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:45:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: DF http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation/comment-page-1#comment-2543 DF Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:19:07 +0000 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation#comment-2543 In terms of debt to GDP, which is what Hunt's whole premise is based on, our economy looks much worse than the 1870s and 1930s. We will not see soup lines but a decade of zero stock returns (we already have one so far) will make you think twice about your comments Joe P. In terms of debt to GDP, which is what Hunt’s whole premise is based on, our economy looks much worse than the 1870s and 1930s. We will not see soup lines but a decade of zero stock returns (we already have one so far) will make you think twice about your comments Joe P.

]]> By: Aki_Izayoi http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation/comment-page-1#comment-2531 Aki_Izayoi Mon, 29 Jun 2009 04:33:23 +0000 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation#comment-2531 "only solution, very high taxes…..aka socialism….. " Well, it isn't so bad if the politicians aren't corrupt. Sweden and Germany have high taxes and those countries aren't hellholes. “only solution, very high taxes…..aka socialism….. ”

Well, it isn’t so bad if the politicians aren’t corrupt. Sweden and Germany have high taxes and those countries aren’t hellholes.

]]> By: E http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation/comment-page-1#comment-2519 E Sun, 28 Jun 2009 15:43:35 +0000 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation#comment-2519 Prescient11, seems like you read the Goldman article in the RS mag, i just finished it this morning in fact..... its a must read.... i am sure you have read Durden's blog and the ruckus on insider trading.... but alas.....this is no stopping the corruption, so sad, dont yah think? (i guess i wouldn't care if i was one of the millions of blind lemmings dollar cost averaging into the market.............what a bunch of maroons, imbesills) Prescient11, seems like you read the Goldman article in the RS mag, i just finished it this morning in fact…..

its a must read….

i am sure you have read Durden’s blog and the ruckus on insider trading….

but alas…..this is no stopping the corruption, so sad, dont yah think?

(i guess i wouldn’t care if i was one of the millions of blind lemmings dollar cost averaging into the market………….what a bunch of maroons, imbesills)

]]> By: prescient11 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation/comment-page-1#comment-2517 prescient11 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 13:34:39 +0000 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation#comment-2517 E, I have a damn solution. Bring back the division that does not allow commercial banks to trade and remove them from their CFTC exception regarding commodities. That would be two big fucking steps in the right direction. Of course, that will never happen, because the only profits to be had by these fools, until cap and trade passes, is by trading. E,

I have a damn solution. Bring back the division that does not allow commercial banks to trade and remove them from their CFTC exception regarding commodities.

That would be two big fucking steps in the right direction. Of course, that will never happen, because the only profits to be had by these fools, until cap and trade passes, is by trading.

]]> By: E http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation/comment-page-1#comment-2514 E Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:50:03 +0000 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation#comment-2514 there is no doubt that we are so screwed..... deflation will hamper the US for some period of time while commodity prices soar....taking away even more disposable income solution - i cant think of one what about the other problems that we are encountering now and soon.... * public sector pensions (with companies canceling pension plans and replacing then with higher matching in the 401Ks...(what a joke)....and therefore private sector employees not having enuff for retirement, who will be subsidizing the private sector retirement entitlements.......EXPECT TO SEE ALOT OF NEW TIERS FOR PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES IN THE FUTURE....on the same rant...it sure seems like the teachers and policemen of now, will retire, with great medical and pension benefits....coming out way way ahead of the "higher paying" private sector jobs.... * property tax increases are unsustainable....and couple that with the fact that in states in which almost every middle class family is hit with the AMT, most of such taxes (or tax increases) do not qualify as a tax deductible expense....taxes will be higher than mortgages..... * baby boomers will have no one to sell their house(s)to.....cause the next generation is so f*d * deflation (my guess) will be here first...if i am wrong, then inflation....BOTH HORRIBLE * sorry, i am ranting...... again...i cant think of any solution things ARE bad only solution, very high taxes.....aka socialism..... there is no doubt that we are so screwed…..

deflation will hamper the US for some period of time

while commodity prices soar….taking away even more disposable income

solution – i cant think of one

what about the other problems that we are encountering now and soon….

* public sector pensions (with companies canceling pension plans and replacing then with higher matching in the 401Ks…(what a joke)….and therefore private sector employees not having enuff for retirement, who will be subsidizing the private sector retirement entitlements…….EXPECT TO SEE ALOT OF NEW TIERS FOR PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES IN THE FUTURE….on the same rant…it sure seems like the teachers and policemen of now, will retire, with great medical and pension benefits….coming out way way ahead of the “higher paying” private sector jobs….

* property tax increases are unsustainable….and couple that with the fact that in states in which almost every middle class family is hit with the AMT, most of such taxes (or tax increases) do not qualify as a tax deductible expense….taxes will be higher than mortgages…..

* baby boomers will have no one to sell their house(s)to…..cause the next generation is so f*d

* deflation (my guess) will be here first…if i am wrong, then inflation….BOTH HORRIBLE

* sorry, i am ranting……

again…i cant think of any solution

things ARE bad

only solution, very high taxes…..aka socialism…..

]]> By: Joe P http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation/comment-page-1#comment-2508 Joe P Sun, 28 Jun 2009 03:11:30 +0000 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation#comment-2508 I don't know about these historians. They sound smart, but what can they really teach us? The esteemed dude here cites 3 periods of debt deflation in the last 150 years, one of which is Japan. Well, okay, let's talk about Japan, the supposed nightmare to end all nightmares. How bad has life been there in the last 20 years? Not much like the Great Depression. Not much like it at all. Economic data looks like hell. But day to day life seems pretty far north of okay. So what's the huge worry all about? As for comparisons to the comparisons to the Great Depression and the 1870s, that's just nonsense. The US economy bears ZERO resemblance to the 1930s, to say nothing of the 1870s. ZERO. So if you make your living looking at 1870 and arguing that it means a lot about where we are now, well, guess what? YOU, SIR, ARE A DRAIN ON THE ECONOMY, BECAUSE YOU'RE GETTING PAID WELL TO CONTRIBUTE NOTHING. I don’t know about these historians. They sound smart, but what can they really teach us? The esteemed dude here cites 3 periods of debt deflation in the last 150 years, one of which is Japan. Well, okay, let’s talk about Japan, the supposed nightmare to end all nightmares. How bad has life been there in the last 20 years? Not much like the Great Depression. Not much like it at all. Economic data looks like hell. But day to day life seems pretty far north of okay. So what’s the huge worry all about?

As for comparisons to the comparisons to the Great Depression and the 1870s, that’s just nonsense. The US economy bears ZERO resemblance to the 1930s, to say nothing of the 1870s. ZERO.

So if you make your living looking at 1870 and arguing that it means a lot about where we are now, well, guess what? YOU, SIR, ARE A DRAIN ON THE ECONOMY, BECAUSE YOU’RE GETTING PAID WELL TO CONTRIBUTE NOTHING.

]]> By: prescient11 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation/comment-page-1#comment-2506 prescient11 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 02:06:50 +0000 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation#comment-2506 EXACTLY!!!! Inflationistas are goofy as hell. It means nothing. DEFLATION IS HERE TO STAY for at least 5-7 years, how many times must this be said. Show me one inflationary aspect and I'll believe it. Debt must be defaulted. The inflation required to change this would alter the entire system and thus, I do not believe it will happen. EXACTLY!!!! Inflationistas are goofy as hell. It means nothing.

DEFLATION IS HERE TO STAY for at least 5-7 years, how many times must this be said.

Show me one inflationary aspect and I’ll believe it. Debt must be defaulted. The inflation required to change this would alter the entire system and thus, I do not believe it will happen.

]]> By: don http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation/comment-page-1#comment-2503 don Sun, 28 Jun 2009 01:32:14 +0000 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation#comment-2503 Dean: Good point. However, rising costs for food, clothing (and energy), will simply take money away from other purchases to cover those rising costs. So . . . in essence, the inflation in LOCG will have deflationary impacts elsewhere, and thus further fueling deflation. Ironic as it may sound, inflation fuels deflation. Dean:

Good point.

However, rising costs for food, clothing (and energy), will simply take money away from other purchases to cover those rising costs. So . . . in essence, the inflation in LOCG will have deflationary impacts elsewhere, and thus further fueling deflation.

Ironic as it may sound, inflation fuels deflation.

]]> By: Dean http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation/comment-page-1#comment-2501 Dean Sat, 27 Jun 2009 23:54:35 +0000 http://pragcap.com/15-20-years-of-deflation#comment-2501 Using some macro economic constructs for illustration purposes, there are two types of capital goods. High order capital goods (HOCG - such as real estate, autos, art) and Low order capital goods (LOCG - staples we use in every day life, food, clothing e.t.c.). The HOCG category indeed exhibits deflationary pressures with many malinvestments, the great majority of which will be abandoned, restructured and repositioned. The LOCG category though, affecting all citizens, can experience inflationary pressures (a bad crop year will increase prices on all ag commodities for example). Therefore deflation, eventhough significant for the financial world, might not be the elevated global concern of the masses. Using some macro economic constructs for illustration purposes, there are two types of capital goods. High order capital goods (HOCG – such as real estate, autos, art) and Low order capital goods (LOCG – staples we use in every day life, food, clothing e.t.c.). The HOCG category indeed exhibits deflationary pressures with many malinvestments, the great majority of which will be abandoned, restructured and repositioned. The LOCG category though, affecting all citizens, can experience inflationary pressures (a bad crop year will increase prices on all ag commodities for example). Therefore deflation, eventhough significant for the financial world, might not be the elevated global concern of the masses.

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