2009 VS 2008
12 June 2009 by TPC
3 Comments
Are we seeing a strange deja vu market? When looking back at the performance of many assets there are striking similarities between 2008 and 2009. Not only is everyone calling for a 4th quarter recovery (again), but the price action is looking disturbingly similar. Regular readers know I don’t ever like to point to one data point to come to conclusions, but it’s interesting to note nonetheless.
Comparing 2h09 to 2h08 makes no sense – 2h08 saw the collapse of banks, virtual end of credit, libor and spreads at extreme highs and a complete stop to inventory building in virtually all industries. 2h09 will see nothing like that
True, there is little takeaway from this, but the price action is interesting. If a 2H recovery doesn’t pan out we will likely see similar 2H price action (though certainly not to the same extent).
“x” that’s what you think… on stand by: California, Pension Funds, Commercial Real Estate—- Additionally we just happen to see a microcosm of 2010 — first signs of recovery will lead to inflation expectations will lead to higher oil prices and higher mortgage rates which will keep a lid on any recovery.
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