2010 OUTLOOK FROM ISI GROUP
21 December 2009 by Cullen Roche
2 Comments
Excellent and rational thinking here from ISI’s Ed Hyman:
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Comments
I don’t get it: unemployment has never, and never will, mean anything to prognosticating future stock market movements – Hyman’s entire segment, like all the other major talking heads out there on TV, talk about the most irrelevant facts vis a vis understanding market cycles…
Plot employment vs. the stock market historically and you’ll get absolutely no insight, period!
Moreover, composite leading indicator series mean nothing when trying to look forward, because they all contain as one of their constituents, the stock market -Thus, as much as the market is a future discounting mechanism, any significant market rally will concurrently cause a major explosion to the upside in leading indicator series. Again, it helps not one shred in prognosticating market inflection points.
A market that one can’t reason Shouldn’t be bought is a market that has topped; a market that one can’t reason Should be bought is a market that has bottomed – we are, +/- a few percent, in the realm of the former, not the latter
“The Fed will tighten considerably…to 1.5%”
Too funny.