2010 SET TO START WITH A BANG
4 January 2010 by TPC
7 Comments
The new decade is set to start the same way the last one ended – with a rally. Stock futures are significantly higher after positive data out of China and Europe and what appears to be early positioning for the full year. As we’ve mentioned, investors are very bullish heading into the new year and there is likely to be a continuation of the major trends that helped drive the markets higher in H2 2009.
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Do u mean “there is unlikely to be major trend ‘against’ the major themes of H2′09″ ?
TPC Reply:
January 4th, 2010 at 8:24 AM
Time to hire that editor…Thanks.
“investors are very bullish heading into the new year and there is likely to be a continuation of the major trends that helped drive the markets higher in H2 2009.”
And there will be lollypops and balloons for all !
TPC Reply:
January 4th, 2010 at 12:30 PM
If anyone can find a reason why the rally will sputter out in the near-term I am all ears. I am completely open to alternatives outlooks. It appears as though every time I turn bullish I get bombarded with baseless attacks….
John Doodle Reply:
January 4th, 2010 at 6:36 PM
I agree with your bullish call the next few months, markets do not change course unless there are triggers. “Overbought”, “excessively rich valuation”, “marginal technicals” etc are not very good at predicting turning points. Bears are probably better off standing aside the next 3 months. And if they need to release some frustration in their comments, I can understand that and share the same. But lets hope they do not act rash on their bear instincts and lose big money like they did in 2009.
TPC Reply:
January 4th, 2010 at 6:49 PM
I think this rally has fooled a lot of people because they see the market as a reflection of the real economy – which it isn’t. The market is simply a reflection of reality compared to expectations. And those expectations remain very low right now. That means there is continued risk to the upside.
ES Reply:
January 5th, 2010 at 9:01 AM
I see markets more and more as reflection of available liquidity, combined with expectations. Hwoever, it is not expectation fo good earnings that drives the market higher right now but the expectation of very low itnerest rates, which in turn mean more available liquidity.
Earnings by themselves dont’ explain valuations close to 100 P/E such as AMZN or CRM, for example.
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