Comments on: 3 NEAR-TERM RISKS TO THE MARKET http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market Sun, 12 Feb 2012 04:27:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: ike tossia http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market/comment-page-1#comment-12737 ike tossia Tue, 09 Mar 2010 22:34:15 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=17584#comment-12737 this is not about complacency. its about big shorts covering b/c they're being told to by the clearing agent/broker and up they go. this MKT's great. just don't argue with too much stock... the quants are getting better and better. there's no prices any more. its just numbers moving. who though we'd be back @1140+- so quick ? its great. this is not about complacency. its about big shorts covering b/c they’re being told to by the clearing agent/broker and up they go. this MKT’s great. just don’t argue with too much stock… the quants are getting better and better. there’s no prices any more. its just numbers moving. who though we’d be back @1140+- so quick ? its great.

]]> By: Joe 401k http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market/comment-page-1#comment-12733 Joe 401k Tue, 09 Mar 2010 22:14:41 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=17584#comment-12733 I appreciate these warnings. The market could keep going higher, but I have to keep reminding myself not to be motivated by the "fear of not making money". I took a little money off the table today, and I won't regret doing so, even if the rally continues. I appreciate these warnings. The market could keep going higher, but I have to keep reminding myself not to be motivated by the “fear of not making money”.

I took a little money off the table today, and I won’t regret doing so, even if the rally continues.

]]> By: Octopus http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market/comment-page-1#comment-12726 Octopus Tue, 09 Mar 2010 20:05:22 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=17584#comment-12726 Zero sum game: another good example is futures markets Zero sum game: another good example is futures markets

]]> By: JZ http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market/comment-page-1#comment-12725 JZ Tue, 09 Mar 2010 19:13:25 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=17584#comment-12725 Just wasted 7 minutes of life I can't get back reading the comments Just wasted 7 minutes of life I can’t get back reading the comments

]]> By: DanH http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market/comment-page-1#comment-12724 DanH Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:57:27 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=17584#comment-12724 Seriously, talk about off topic.... Seriously, talk about off topic….

]]> By: AWF http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market/comment-page-1#comment-12723 AWF Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:53:33 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=17584#comment-12723 Too much pud pulling in this thread? This article is about : Complacency---Live to Thrill Junkies--this is not your type of market. Of course "No/Limited Short Selling" does count. Catalysts---we will get retail sales this week Probably not good by the February weather--count on the rebound for March China---I think they want to sell goods to the US--not the other way around. Exchange rates are itch for these guys. Too much pud pulling in this thread?

This article is about :

Complacency—Live to Thrill Junkies–this is not your type of market.
Of course “No/Limited Short Selling” does count.

Catalysts—we will get retail sales this week
Probably not good by the February weather–count on the rebound for March

China—I think they want to sell goods to the US–not the other way around.
Exchange rates are itch for these guys.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market/comment-page-1#comment-12722 TPC Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:43:48 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=17584#comment-12722 I think what you're missing is that there is always a fixed amount of equities, bonds and money markets in the overall pool. It certainly changes over time (new issuance, etc), but in general it is relatively little changed in any given day, month or year in the grand scheme of things. All buyers and sellers of these assets do is interchange them. Ownership changes and price changes based on psychology. When you sell your stocks to buy a bond fund the transaction works like this: A buys stock from B and B buys cash while A sells cash. B then buys a bond from C who buys cash from B. All that happened here was an exchange of instruments. Nothing more. You all reallocated based on your psychology at that time. New issuance is a separate matter, but that's not what we've been discussing. I think what you’re missing is that there is always a fixed amount of equities, bonds and money markets in the overall pool. It certainly changes over time (new issuance, etc), but in general it is relatively little changed in any given day, month or year in the grand scheme of things. All buyers and sellers of these assets do is interchange them. Ownership changes and price changes based on psychology.

When you sell your stocks to buy a bond fund the transaction works like this: A buys stock from B and B buys cash while A sells cash. B then buys a bond from C who buys cash from B. All that happened here was an exchange of instruments. Nothing more.

You all reallocated based on your psychology at that time.

New issuance is a separate matter, but that’s not what we’ve been discussing.

]]> By: van http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market/comment-page-1#comment-12721 van Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:29:06 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=17584#comment-12721 now to keep it fair and balanced... http://www.tradersnarrative.com/why-extremely-lopsided-volume-days-are-bullish-3768.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TradersNarrative+%28Trader%27s+Narrative%29 now to keep it fair and balanced…

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/why-extremely-lopsided-volume-days-are-bullish-3768.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TradersNarrative+%28Trader%27s+Narrative%29

]]> By: chris http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market/comment-page-1#comment-12720 chris Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:24:35 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=17584#comment-12720 "The transaction nets to zero. Someone has to sell your stocks to you. What do you think happens to their money when they sell the stocks? It goes into the money market that you just sold." last time; i see huge qualitative differences for the equity market depending upon whether that money market account is for a equity manager who is seeking to redeploy cash back into the equity market, or a money market account for a bond fund manager or for a cash investor who is staying in cash. there have been a net outflow of cash from equity funds and a huge inflow of cash into bond funds and money market funds. i think this will gradually reverse over the year as the equity market performance convinces more investors to be slightly less risk averse. any stock transaction nets to zero, as you say, on a micro level, but you have to look at the macro level...cash that wants to be equity is a big difference from cash that wants to stay cash or be a bond. my final comment on this point as this is getting tiresome. if any of you think i am an idiot for believing this, go right ahead. “The transaction nets to zero. Someone has to sell your stocks to you. What do you think happens to their money when they sell the stocks? It goes into the money market that you just sold.”

last time; i see huge qualitative differences for the equity market depending upon whether that money market account is for a equity manager who is seeking to redeploy cash back into the equity market, or a money market account for a bond fund manager or for a cash investor who is staying in cash.

there have been a net outflow of cash from equity funds and a huge inflow of cash into bond funds and money market funds. i think this will gradually reverse over the year as the equity market performance convinces more investors to be slightly less risk averse.

any stock transaction nets to zero, as you say, on a micro level, but you have to look at the macro level…cash that wants to be equity is a big difference from cash that wants to stay cash or be a bond.

my final comment on this point as this is getting tiresome. if any of you think i am an idiot for believing this, go right ahead.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/3-near-term-risks-to-the-market/comment-page-1#comment-12718 TPC Tue, 09 Mar 2010 17:58:24 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=17584#comment-12718 Chris, I didn't call you an idiot. The comment section here is always pretty civil so let's not overreact. Your implication is that cash on the sidelines provides firepower for a move higher. As if investors move out of cash and into stocks. But that's not how it actually works. The transaction nets to zero. Someone has to sell your stocks to you. What do you think happens to their money when they sell the stocks? It goes into the money market that you just sold. Chris,

I didn’t call you an idiot. The comment section here is always pretty civil so let’s not overreact.

Your implication is that cash on the sidelines provides firepower for a move higher. As if investors move out of cash and into stocks. But that’s not how it actually works. The transaction nets to zero.

Someone has to sell your stocks to you. What do you think happens to their money when they sell the stocks? It goes into the money market that you just sold.

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