Comments on: 3 THINGS I THINK I THINK

By: Octopus

Octopus — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:05:22 +0000

I agree the mkt could try an upmove now…I closed my shorts

By: Henry

Henry — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:36:29 +0000

quote:
“And the emailers who have implied that the Goldman deal was some stroke of brilliance must have forgotten that they were the ones who saved Buffett from a colossal mistake via their bailout.”
-I think people tend to forget that very successful people don’t get to be successful by the IQ test. They also know people, they know how the government works etc etc. Just like that guy who used to work with for the hedge fund Paulson who bet on the government would come in for the rescue. Or you can take the guy who closed his bearish fund and declare that it was over. Those people make big money because they understand what can affect the economy on the macro scale and they have connection. You guys keep leaving out the biggest equation of them all : the consumer, the government: the human factor.
I’ll put it this way. In Africa, Asia, in ancient time, etc etc, some of the guys who are in charge didn’t even go to school or understand economic but they made it big and become rich. Why?
However, I do agree that this move of Warren Buffet is out of the norm for him. But then again, I don’t even know what is the norm of Warren Buffett…

By: prescient11

prescient11 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:46:23 +0000

Gold is being repriced. A credit crisis persists and potentially the killing of the dollar backs a gold play. If the dollar rallies, and a real credit crunch happens, gold should stay elevated.

Gold is a very good play in the next two to three years I believe.

Again, fractional reserve lending is broken, so are fiat currencies.

There are two ways out of this mess: 1) Volker style jacking of interest rates and fiscal sanity (which causes a lot of short term pain – such as 20% UE); or 2) more QE, stimulus, etc., which is the easy way out.

Guess which way we’re going.

At least tonight’s vote hopefully killed healthcare.

By: jt26

jt26 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:06:53 +0000

The trains could also run on natural gas since they’re hauling fuel anyways, and most/all engines are electric (diesel->electric the same as NG-elect). Must be backed by Pickens and that former viz prez and Khosla.

By: Doug Terpstra

Doug Terpstra — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:27:14 +0000

Buffet likely has exactly the same insider dope as the Government Sacks puppeteers.

In the long run rail, especially retrofitted to high-speed passenger service, makes perfect sense for almost any future energy regime (even fusion one day). It’s extremely safe, highly efficient, and if the first premise is correct (anyone doubt it?) then count on a major public rail-infrastructure investment in stimulus 2.0—probably just after the (abysmal) holiday season.

By: TPC

TPC — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:02:07 +0000

I don’t hang my hat on TA. On the back of strong earnings and this “buy the dip” mentality it’s hard for me to imagine that a sell-off of more than 10% will materialize before year-end.

By: DanH

DanH — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:45:00 +0000

someone saved his ass that’s for sure. it might have been the taxpayer it might have been the chinese, but he dodged a reputation tarring bullet with that bailout.

By: DH

DH — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:43:19 +0000

Buffett would say the Chinese saved us, not the taxpayers.

By: DanH

DanH — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:43:10 +0000

I think fundamentals don’t matter until 2010. Investors will chase the performance until year end and then realize that the market is overvalued, the stimulus isn’t working and that jobs aren’t coming back.

By: JeffT

JeffT — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:30:06 +0000

Any thoughts that this is distribution – that a right shoulder will be put in once SPX gets back around 1070-1080 – from a TA perspective. I remember back in the june-july when it was a head/shoulder pattern – but that ultimately failed.