5 REASONS TO BE BULLISH ABOUT AMERICA IN THE LONG-RUN
Regular readers know I am super bullish about America in the long-run. Despite our near-term difficulties, the core infrastructure that made this country great is still intact. In this morning’s missive Jeff Saut touched on 5 reasons why America isn’t going down the tubes any time soon:
1) The United States is the home of the entrepreneur.
2) The U.S. is the most open/flexible society the world has ever seen.
3) The brightest minds from around the world dream of coming to the U.S.
4) English is the universal language.
5) Americanization remains a powerful and growing – though resented – economic and social trend throughout the world. (To quote the advertising/marketing giant WPP Group’s CEO, Sir Martin Sorrell, “Globalization is a misnomer. The better word is Americanization.”)
Despite our near-term problems I think it’s always a death wish to bet against America in the long-run. There are simply too many macro trends working in favor of progress of this country over the long-term. There is little doubt in my mind that the USA will be at the forefront of the next great economic boom and this current balance sheet recession is just one more hurdle for the country to overcome.
“[T]he core infrastructure that made this country great is still intact”
Don’t think so. The roads, bridges, water and sewer lines are falling apart all over the country.
The austerity drive prevents investment in infrastructure. China among others has better rail than the US now.
Education is lagging the rest of the world, mostly in exact sciences.
More service jobs are being outsourced every day.
Deregulation destroys the very foundation of capitalism. Almost all industries are consolidated to 3 to 4 players – no competition.
The economy goes in recession every time the gas prices go up and there will be a lot of that coming. Imagine if gas goes up to 10 dollars as it is in Europe and than compare.
And on top of that there is a push to destroy the so called social safety net which is laughable when compared with the rest of the advanced world.
All in all I do not think all is intact.
All fixable.
Sure, in theory. Given the current political climate how likely though?
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t deny that there are serious near-term hurdles here….
I would love to agree with you, Mr Roche, however, all five are under massive assault…..
Our decline began on or about 1960, with the advent of the progressive movement…
Two decades later, that movement was replaced by the “fair” Socialist way, as the need for greater collectivism advanced….
Now, the Maoist and their friends “The Internationals,” seek to convert and subjugate the American public and its culture…
I believe, that the red tide will eventually be turned, if not head for the border (north)….
May God not cast us aside! An-American <——–The only genuine non hyphenated American..
Keep looking backwards if it makes you feel patriotic or something. Too many Americans see a snapshot of history, post WW 2 until present, and draw conclusions from what is a blink of an eye in history.
There’s nothing patriotic about it. At the end of the day ingenuity is what builds economic prosperity. And despite all of our problems there is no shortage of ingenuity in this country and there never will be. It’s our competitive advantage and to just blindly reject that is silly. Sure, we have some big problems, but the core desires that built this country (freedom to profit, build, live and work) are all still intact.
Bullshit. US has been in a severe growth crisis that is now in it’s fourth decade. Ingenuity to gut out the bottom 80%, manipulate bond yields and asset prices, blow asset bubbles and call it growth, monetize debt and print money. Wow, that’s ingenious. Any group of morons with opposing thumbs could of pulled that off.
You can disagree without being disrespectful.
I do not always agree with Cullen on everything, but I can tell you he never posts bullshit.
“I do not always agree with Cullen on everything, but I can tell you he never posts bullshit.”
Agreed!!!!
How true,
America was brok and in a serious depression in th 1930′s
Then WWII turned USoverproduction into an asset and the US came out of WWII as the world’s greatest creditor nation…Then out politicians hijacked that prosperity for political expediency and we’ve come full cycle – back to depression….now where do we go?
There must be two Hans, since I did not create the above post….
The US is the home of the entrepreneur. True, but not exclusively. Do not dismiss all the budding entrepreneurs in Asia, who, by my reckoning, are today far hungrier for wealth than the average American.
Open flexible society. True, but eroding fast as America increasingly becomes a fascist police state. Take a look around. It’s undeniable. But nothing to say it’s permanent.
The brightest minds. Yes, the US is still THE place for the migration of the brightest minds. But there will be increasing competition in the years ahead if American hegemony and wealth continues to decline.
Resources. The greatest advantage the US had was a blessing of abundant natural resources. Particularly oil. Have you noticed that as the oil reserves declined, do to has America’s prosperity? Oil was the key to America’s wealth. Canada’s tar sands are a poor substitute.
Infrastructure. Old and decaying. Can be rebuilt, but at great cost while other countries are already creating modern efficient infrastructures of their own.
English will continue to be the universal language, unless the Chinese impose language rules. The Chinese are colonizing the planet by stealth. As long as the Chinese immigrants accept the local language English can continue as the world’s lingua franca, but it’s by no means assured.
In short, America still has great potential, but there is now increased competition and the great advantages America once enjoyed over others (oil, no devastation caused by war (eg Europe) and vast resources (no under strain) are gone or disappearing. America’s real test will be how well America can compete in a world where she no longer has these advantages and her military cannot push everyone else around.
On that note, I wish her the best.
The biggest reason to bank on America (assuming we can get beyond our near term hurdles and there are plenty of them), is because out best competition comes from Asia. They have all built their economies based upon export orientation – specifically to America. They are dependent on the US. Where would ANY Asian nation be without a pegged currency to the dollar?
except number 4 all above is farce.. and in number 4 it says English not American. America is the modern Roman Empire which has started to go down in the fumes 10 years ago when you were in the small panties..
“1) The United States is the home of the entrepreneur.”
Agreed, this is debatable.
“2) The U.S. is the most open/flexible society the world has ever seen.”
I’d love to see your evidence on this one. Where in the world is there a labor force as regionally as flexible as the US? It doesn’t exist. Socially, I’d bet it’s also the most socially mobile.
“3) The brightest minds from around the world dream of coming to the U.S.”
The #1 US export is EDUCATION.
One more thing: if one judges a society’s growth potential based on that society’s values and morals, than America is in real trouble. Fraud and corruption have become systemic, particularly in government and banking (money), arguably the two most important institutions in a society. Religion? Overall can be good for society and there is no doubt Americans are religious, especially in the South. However, there nothing very “Christian” about so many American Christians who think it’s OK to go and bomb the brown people over their in in some “stan” country because CNN says they are our enemy.
Aggreed!
But it is necessary to stop fraudclosure an a lot of other financial machinations, so that the good forces of the US are set free again.
I think English dominance is limited to the globe (for now); the universe is next, though.
The current belief in future Chinese domination of the planet is an only slightly more credible version of the 80′s idea that Japan would soon rule the world. The fact that China has 1+ bln people makes them more to reckon with than the Japanese, but first most of them will have to start earning more than a few bucks a day. The Chinese have a lot of catching up to do. When you start small, the early gains can look huge. Look for China growth in the decades to come to slow to more “normal” rates as they try incorporate the rest of their populace.
America is obviously still a great place despite all its problems, and it will only get better once the problems are solved. However, that doesn’t mean it is the “world’s greatest country” like Americans so often claim. Of course, of nations with a population over 50 million, it is by far the best, but that ignores many countries. If I had to make a list of the countries that I would most like to live in right now, I would rate America behind Canada, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, and maybe one or two Scandinavian nations.
- “The U.S. is the most open/flexible society the world has ever seen”. Out of all 200+ countries on earth, the USA is the most flexible and open? That’s a joke.
- “The brightest minds from around the world dream of coming to the U.S.” Very true, and this is a major advantage!
America is a great country, but don’t forget that so are many others, and that America is not necessarily always #1!
The rest of the world is becoming much more competitive. But that doesn’t mean we have lost our edge and are destined to sink into some black hole as so many have predicted….
Hmm, yes. It reminds me of Carroll Quigley’s insight in ‘Tragedy & Hope: A History of the World in our time’: That civilisations usually pass through several stages from birth to death, but – remarkably – the western civilisation has been able to buck that pattern by repeatedly re-entering the ‘expansion’ phase. As the US is now in the centre of that civilisation – it is quite conceivable that it should remain at least relatively enlightened – and reap the rewards of that enlightenment. However, long-term, I’m not (technically) sure I’d be ‘bullish’, as I expect part of that entrepreneurial spirit and enlightenment would include an abandonment of the Fed (or reorganization of it). That – as you mentioned in your other article – could be quite gut-wrenching for the markets. And yet – paradoxically – that’s where optimism, faith in entrepreneurship and truth seems to lie.
No, it simply a matter of comparison. Folks like Jim Puplava and Peter Schiff are simply hating the US and loving anything but the US (like e.g. China). Yes, the US WILL go through a very deep and severe recession/depression. But like these US haters fail to recognize is that countries like Europe, China, India, Brazil WILL go through the same deep economic depression AS WELL.
The US WILL have to downsize/shrink the most IMO. But countries that have the most economic freedom will have an advantage over other countries and recover the fastest and that’s why I think the US, Europe (in spite of all its problems) will recover the soonest. The US and Europe also have another advantage over other countries: rainfall throughout the entire year and not concentrated in a limited period of time of the monsoon.
How deep that black (US) hole will be, depends on how stupid future (US) governments (and the FED) behave. Keywords (among others): wars, money printing.
predicting the future is a dangerous thing. backtrack 25 years of the US. and it seems rather ugly
Cullen-
When are you going to enable like buttons on your website. I would really enjoy the ability to be able to ‘like’ or ‘recommend’ your posts to my friends. I rave about your analysis at networking events, to collegues, and old college buddies and want to be able to link your posts to my facebook.
There are lots of changes to the site I wish I could make. I just haven’t gotten around to it….Sorry.
The United States WAS the home of the entrepreneur, now it’s the home of Fascism or as Mussolini preferred calling it, Corporatism.
I used to be happy that we were able to rescue the “system” in 2008/09. But I’ve really grown to appreciate the political/economic environment 1930, 31, 32 created. The early years of the depression wiped out the “Corporatism” of the day.
VERY true. I too have been drawing the same conclusions.
Just look at the above comments about fascism and bureaucracy, it’s incredible how those with power (money) can spin a situation. How easily we forget what got us into this mess. But tag patriotism and rile up the NON-Existant debate about merits of communism and you have a corporately funded grass roots movement…
Once we send this archaic system into the dumpster than we can build anew. Current archaic economic interests seem to be saying…”innovation of our infrastructure over our dead bodies”. And we’ll get no where without upgrading our energy infrastructure… from how we convert various sources of energy into electrons to how the electrons are transported. Until then there is an enormous amount of economic power getting flushed down the toilet.
I think your article touches on many of the qualitative, positive facets of our society. And all, although subjective, I believe to be true.
But I don’t know if any or all of these take into account the quantitative facts that are pressing against our economic growth. Numbers don’t lie. We have more debt, in more ways, than most of us can imagine.
I personally am concerned that many of the things our society / country offers are luxuries. And there may come a time when we have to go to a more basic, simpler form of existence. Clean water and electricity are more important than paint colors and Ipads. We had a small taste of this a couple of years ago when everyone started staying home and having family dinner because they couldn’t afford a restaurant. Every day, we take for granted simple things, like a hot shower.
Most of our economy hasn’t been fixed. No matter how fun the “game” is, we still have to play within the “rules.” And the rules state, we owe a lot of money.
I’m always wary of these “flagpole in the ass” declarations of national pride. Infrastructure in the US is crap compared to Europe. Dot. Wifi, cellular, trains, roads are much better in Europe or in Japan (even after the earthquake). The most brilliant minds… Bernanke, Geitner? I forgot Scholes. Here I admit I’m negative on purpose but the problem with the brilliant mind theory is that this country has no culture of execution. It’s a country of home runs. The result; all solar panels are now made in China and Germans make much better cars. I see nothing that will change that trend. That’s the biggest threat in my mind.
Another point is Americanization. Since Bush the Young (or the fall of communism as a live alternative), Americanization has more to do with using cruise missile surpluses and currency reserve status than with ideas. This trend has not changed with O Bama. Without fresh ideas and real leadership, that is absent for the moment, America will normalize and this process is currently running its course. America is stuck. Whilst you switch Congress and nothing changes, European democracies saw the emergence of independent political party and a much bigger part of the population is represented in the government. If the BRIC countries keep progressing towards liberalism and, moreover (because that’s the only thing that really matters) keep guarantying private property, the relative position of the US is going to shrink further. Can you imagine that, if 10 years ago you’d have invested your money in Brazil, a country lead by a former communist guerilleros, you’d have twice the money you got from your US investments? The key here is that US is not really in control of its destiny anymore but depends more on the failure of others to keep its numero uno position.
All in all, the biggest advantage of America remains in its geography and that nobody can steal it (thanks to the cruise missiles). First there is huge space available. This space allows you to build families at a relative low cost (try to house a family of 5 in Europe) and, if the age pyramid gets nasty, you have a reservoir of young people down south and they are easy to integrate. Europe has to cope with Northern Africa for the same problem and they are much more difficult to integrate (see the latest comments from A. Merkel in Germany) and Asia is very difficult to penetrate for foreigners. Second, I don’t see the central position of America disappear. It’s going to remain the axis for practical reasons. All cross roads in the world remained relatively prosperous through history. Furthermore, America is the only place I know of where you can make a good living without even speaking the language.
All in all, I’m convinced that America is normalizing and the 40 millions using food stamps will not disagree with me. Don’t make the mistake that you’ll stay on top because the fall will only come faster. Apart of this, America, if you like to dig into small caps, is still, by far, the best emerging market in the world.
This isn’t a “rah rah America is great” story. But the claims that the empire in America is destined in end in rubble in the coming years is nonsense. There are a lot of people out there who would like to scare everyone into believing that we are on the verge of imminent demise. These claims are ridiculous. And I won’t apologize for reminding people, that while things aren’t great, we also aren’t falling into an abyss.
I’m sure if you asked a Spaniard of the 17th century or a Brit during the 19th century they would’ve said that an imminent demise of their empire was ridiculous too. History has proven all empires eventually collapse.
And if we don’t end whatever you want to call our current form of government; Fascism, Corporatism, Totalitarianism or Kleptocracy, the USA’s empire will most definitely collapse.
Here’s a great article I suggest everyone reads http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=14013.
Oh yes. The US empire already has started to crumble. The US is turning into a police state, is already a soft military dictatorship. If Obama (or for that matter McCain) would cut the military budget by say 5, 10, 20 or more % then he would be assassinated before he has a chance to be re-elected in november 2012.
More over, I doubt wether the US will survive the next financial crisis in its current form.
Please understand that I love America, but I see hard times ahead for certain demographic sectors such as retirees and younger workers. Why? Because our corrupt political leadership (and to some extent, our own selves) have made the decision to “default” on our national debt by inflating it away through money creation vastly in excess of production via QE1, QE2, QEN. We will, in effect, accomplish the goal of national debt liquidation by stealing from savers and investors (producers) in order to fund the “corn dole” for the moochers; Acorn community organizers as well as corporate welfare recipients (e.g. GE, Fannie/Freddie). Why do you think Bill Gross (aka, the “bond king”) of PIMCO recently sold its entire US Treasury bond portfolio? Who in their right mind would buy long-term Treasury bonds? Where do you think the stock market would be without the late-night mystery futures buyer? Perhaps I am just pissed that I will be one of those getting screwed after working for over 40 years and playing by the rules. In the next 10-15 years, the purchasing power of my nest egg will be cut in half (If I’m lucky). The only way I see us getting back to a point where the American dream will be reignited, is to take drastic measures as soon as possible. (1) Means test SS & Medicaid, (2) increase retirement age, (3) drastically cut other entitlement programs, (4) shrink the empire and cut military spending, (5) bring to justice many of those responsible for corruption and malfeasance, including elected officials. Good grief, the Stupid Party and the Evil Party are fighting over whether to cut the budget (deficit?) by one percent or one-half percent! That’s like arguing over whether to bail the Titanic with a tea cup or a tea pot. Yes, we are in trouble because of spending beyond our means, but the real damage comes from continuing to live a lie. The lie that says the Fed can solve the debt crisis by more debt. If we are going to make it to the other side of the abyss, we have to restore the rule of law (economic as well as statute) and restore our honor.
Well said, Sandy, congratulations.
America has a weak educational system, resulting dependence on imported talent, also computer-aided production efficiency beyond expectations, resulting production per worker that ensures high unemployment of our weak or absent unions (liquor distributors give more to political campaigns than the CIO-AFL)only the purchasing power of the top 10% keeps the economy somewhat strong (15+ million higher income households with more economic clout than all the households of Germany and France combined), the growing power of a selfish plutocracy a la Latin America, tolerance of financial corruption, it all makes me pessimistic.
Why am I bullish on the USA? Because our edge is found in the supportive underpinnings of the Constitution, and a democratic process of laws. All of the infrastructure, fiscal, educational, etc… deficiencies can be addressed through the political process or through market forces. Remember that even though the government carries a heavy hand; the government is ultimately controlled by the voices of its own constituent citizens. In the USA the free market still prevails, even though it is currently somewhat encumbered. The world will continue to look to us for leadership as long as we stay true to our foundations (which is still the case today and for the foreseeable future).
Smart post and points USA.
If you apply that logic to other countries, you’d be bullish on most of the developed world..
. Us foreigners are equally as free as you are, are equally as democratic, probably less corrupt, and have free’er markets than you do…
You should have said, “Why I am bullish on the developed world”.
“1) The United States is the home of the entrepreneur.”
The funny thing is that people here and around still promote socialism ideas and compete who will choke capitalism quicker.
Entrepreneurs don’t rise in socialism. people will not create when they have to work for government.
American may have bright future, I can even add a few factors on that list, but not before significant chaos and revolution to remove existing elite from power. Before I see that , it is still very safe to bet USA as nation is on long road of decline.
I agree with you Cullen. Absolutely spot on. And I have no doubt, entrepreneurs, businessmen, and young Americans’ with dreams are thinking the same things you alluded too in your article. They are the builders of the future and have already started building. Optimism and a desire to succeed is a strength no other nation has more of than the United States.
Btw I am British (Scottish), so can provide an outside view.
1) The United States is the home of the entrepreneur.
2) The U.S. is the most open/flexible society the world has ever seen.
3) The brightest minds from around the world dream of coming to the U.S.
1) “The United States is the home of the entrepreneur.”
Yes, but then our corporations sell the idea to the high (foreign) bidder that can produce a product for the lowest cost and we ( the American public) pay some foreign company to produce and profit from the idea, for the useable life of the idea. Even assuming an “Entrepreneur” were to come up with and idea that would stay “onshore” the regulations promulgated by our cities, counties, states and feds, make real competition nearly (though not totally) impossible.
2) “The U.S. is the most open/flexible society the world has ever seen.”
Unless you want to stand up and say that the government shouldn’t be fighting 2 or 3 ridiculous wars, that our veterans are being duped into fighting for the interests of multi-national corporations, not our national interests, that the IRS is a collection agency for the Federal Reserve, which is ultimately the agenscy responsible for the current depression and every recession/depression since 1913. Don’t forget that the “News Media” is now owned lock, stock and barrel by the same corporations that have corrupted our government and see the American public as a captive herd of sheep to be regularly fleeced.
3) “he brightest minds from around the world dream of coming to the U.S.”
Until the word gets out that the “Freedom” people dreamed of has been boxed and sold. Doesn’t anybody wonder why, after 200 plus years, our governments (City, County, State and Federal) now work full time, year upon year, passing new laws, for our supposed benefit!!! Instead of using our native intellect and common sense, the American people have come to believe that we just need to pass another Freaking Law, and that will solve the problem!!! America is now the most grossly regulated society in the world and it is getting progressively worse. We certainly aren’t freer and richer over the last 50 years (Yes I am old enough to know!) Passing more laws won’t make us freer and richer, as laws and rules simply restrict the free thinking necessary to promotr the entrepreneurial spirit.
Ask any Roman, they never saw the end of the Empire coming!!!
Remember history always repeats itself. Who was the superpower of 1800′s, 1700′s, …1200′s, 100′s. How long did each one last? As communication got better and better each one’s superpower strength got a shorter and shorter time at the top. Oh by the way, has anyone watched the weather over the last 40 years. What happens when California finally gets it’s 10.0 earthquake or silent Yellow Stone finally erupts? We are all at the mercy of Mother Earth a living and developing planet. Maybe one day we will find out we’ve rebuilt society a few times before Adam and Eve.
Cullen: 5 REASONS TO BE BULLISH ABOUT AMERICA IN THE LONG-RUN
…everthing may be positively argued based on ‘in the long run’.
In short its a useless strategy of hope (‘she’ll be right’, mate) that enables people to generously accept short term mismanagement, hoping a messiah’s just waiting around the corner to take us out of all our miseries
Kind Regards
We all live for the long-term Klaus. It might seem like a semantic point, but the long-term is just an extension of the short-term. I am not building a life, a business, relationships, etc so I can enjoy them for a day, week or month. So yes, I am optimistic that everything I am working on in the short-term will one day pay off in the long-term.
Cullen, the only way I may understand your view is to think, you are a young bloke; and fair enough, being young and overly optimistic is essential to survive the daily drag (= how many of us are doing their dreams?)
…sadly enough, whatever voices come out of the media now are the same voices heard decades ago, forever regurgitating stuff for a truly better world
…in reality however, the better world only happens for fewer and fewer people
…may you be one of the fewer people but never forget, being unfortunate may be just a breath away
Kind Regards
The title of the article was not” 5 reasons america remains the best” but simply why it wont go down the tubes. The comment section seems to largely miss that. Quality of life issues largely depend more on wealth than in anytime in perhaps 60 yrs. If you run in Cullen’s crowd you have a totally different perspective than someone in the 34th percentile.
I would begin to argue point 3 more than others…increasingly some come here for secondary education than go back home. Especially from western europe or some of the high octane asian countries.
What america once was great at was social mobility…it is now losing that. I have read that is is now behind MANY european countries we decry for high taxes and socialism in the ability for the average peon to move up the social scale. Lots of that is the awful K12 education system in many of the poor to middle class parts of country. What the US has is the lottery ticket system where you can start facebook and be a billionaire but that applies to a miniscule amount of people.
The larger question is what does average person want in life? Many would argue having 6 weeks of vacation a year, a balance of work life, and the ability to sleep at night not afraid getting the wrong illness at the wrong time in life (unemployed or underemployed) wont wipe out your life savings and plunge you into bankruptcy. Meanwhile in the US many defin e success as 1 week of vacation, having a house 3x what you need that you see only after 7PM, misssing 80% of your kids soccer game so you can feed the corporate machine and then if you lose your job over age 55 being a useless cog in the american machine. Where dog eat dog is the ethos. So greatness is all in the eye of the beholder.
As someone said above if many had 2 yrs to live in say Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, heck even Switzerland or New Zealand and see quality of life ex” accumulation of objects” they might have a different view on things. Especoally those in the bottom 2/3rds.
Unfortunately America has already been destroyed. Our Constitutional Liberties and National Sovereignty Compromised, our Economic Prosperity set overseas with jobs to foreign lands and foreign workers to the US, and our Cultural Values replaced with Marist/Communist propaganda by government and educational institutions. Fundamental change is required but directly opposite to what is being implementing; we must go back to the future to revive our nation.
1) The United States is the home of the entrepreneur.
Translation: Rich people dont pay much taxes.
2) The U.S. is the most open/flexible society the world has ever seen.
Translation: The Security Guard at LAX will gladly grab your balls.
3) The brightest minds from around the world dream of coming to the U.S.
Translation: The richest people around the world dont want to pay taxes either
4) English is the universal language.
Translation: English is the universal language.
5) Americanization remains a powerful and growing – though resented – economic and social trend throughout the world. (To quote the advertising/marketing giant WPP Group’s CEO, Sir Martin Sorrell, “Globalization is a misnomer. The better word is Americanization.”)
Translation: Everybody wants a Mexican slave cleaning at home instead of a Roomba.
It all depends on which way we go when the economy crashes. 40 million on food stamps. 1/2 the country dependent on the government for some type of assistance.
Millions of baby boomers will be huge burden. If the dollar crashes there will be widespread unrest. Look at the unions right now and things aren’t even bad yet. Millions of angry, resentful, hungry and unenmployed people are a recipe for disaster. Weimar gave rise to Hitler. If we turn back to our founding roots I agree with you, otherwise we’re toast.
While I agree with this list, I think a much more convincing piece would involve a list of counterpoints to the obvious list of reasons that the US is falling behind the rest of the world.
Fair points re: our entrepreneur base & intellectual capital, but with countries like Singapore offering dramatically lower tax rates (8% taxation for small biz!), that sucking sound is now opportunity, not just jobs.
And “near term”? I don’t see how our natl debt/deficit/boomer obligations/monetary issues are “near term” at all. Which great empire state bucked the “rise & fall” historical trend? Know of any massive empires that are still strong today? Or even around today? Me neither.
Ever notice how everything is a cycle?
America is a great country in many ways, and its legacy can last well beyond the country itself. However, history has some sobering lessons.
1) It took another 300 years for the Roman Empire to fall after it reached its (in hindsight) peak. Cycles are now much shorter.
1a) Still, its legacy has been carried along by other empires for the past 2000 years.
1b) One of the causes for the collapse were the costs of the excessive benefits granted to its retired legionnaires (not enough land to grab and distribute, which ended up pissing a lot of barbarians).
2) History rhymes a lot: all big financial crises end very painfully.
3) All big empires eventually crumpled under excessive spending and leverage.
Wow, Cullen, I can’t believe the degree of negativity and pessimism your post attracted. Here we are, living in the most privileged and affluent society human history has ever known, and what we have here is a bunch of complainers. What happenned to the can-do American spirit? I don’t see it around here. Lets hope the most vocal are not representative of the core of America, or else we really are in trouble.
I’m with you and Warren Buffet. America has yet to see its best days, and anyone who doesn’t see that needs to start reading our history that much more closely to understand how far we have come.
re: 1) The United States is the home of the entrepreneur
“US falls behind Canada, Norway, Denmark, Sweden”:
http://www.inc.com/magazine/20110201/in-norway-start-ups-say-ja-to-socialism_pagen_4.html
No no no, when talking about America we do not use international facts and statistics. Those are irrelevant. The data is wrong.. It can’t be, because US of A is the best in everything .. Always .. Best health care , best business environment, best education … All true for a selected few. The rest are lazy, they choose to have no job and live on food stamps. All in all much better then those socialists .. For the selected few.
If we look back, UK was a leading power in the early 1900′s they had many inventions to their credit by that time (industrial revolution, enlightenment, steam engine, e.t.c) (of course many other countries has inventions too)capitalism, ingenuity hard working and improving ( education is not the preserve of the rich anymore)population and a vast empire. Anyone of that time could tell that these are the reasons that made this country great and as long as they work despite hiccups we ‘ll surge along. UK was most concerned about growing German power ( as US about china now) with other strong growing economies like Argentina(Does any one remember how big an economy and strong was Argentina till the 1930′s)and US.But ultimately it’s the US that overtook UK after World War II. UK has the power to print it’s own currency (though linked to gold at that time) US extended materials and services to UK during the war on credit which has to paid over a few decades but it called it up in few years (i reckon it’s in 1955, have to check the source again) after the war than according previous agreements.
UK today is still a developed country better than many countries and people still like to emigrate to UK.But it’s power and position in the world has diminished substantially, citizenry had to face hardships for a couple of decades during that transition.As the world economy grew UK economy grew too but it’s share of the pie declined relatively as others grew at a higher rate and got a bigger pie (beaten powers like Germany and Japan over took UK, even though they started with a smaller base in 1950′s).There will be good opportunities in US as they have been in UK,Germany and Japan and many other countries over that last 50 years.
Mr. Roche your blog has been part of my daily reading for your insightful discussions and commentary over the past few years.I’ve been a devoted follower and really appreciate your work. But statements like this ( being bullish on america or china does not consider the nuance involved) and does not sound very pragmatic.
In the end it will come down to America’s natural resources; land, energy, minerals, water, and most important people, specifically their sense of freedom, ingenuity and spirit. This nation has a tendency to slumber, to hibernate until something bothers enough. Nothing has bothered America enough for decades, but when that time comes it will be amazing all that will be accomplished in such a short time…
It will be fun, and I for one am looking forward to it!
Am I the only one who is confused about what is being discussed?
What do you mean by being “bullish” on America? That it will continue to be a manjor economic player for many more decades? That it will grow in relation to other economies? That it will be the dominant economic force in x years?
Why are these particular factors the most important, and what to they mean in terms of the relationship with the rest of the world? You say we are the “home of the entrepeneur.” On what basis? Are there more successful start-ups per capita than in Europe? How many? Is entrepeneurship really the mark of success in a global economy? I see mention of Groupon – isn’t Boeing more important than fifty Groupons? What do we compare our qualities to – individual European countries, Europe as a whole, some reasonable projection of what someone decides China could be like in thirty years?
Is this post just an attempt to draw arguments based on either partisan doomsaying or jingoistic optimism?
This piece is too shallow and I regretted I even opened it and read it.
A glance back forty years ago:
1) No armed guard at my local library
2) No transit police
3) No guard at my local SS or IRS office
4) No pat downs to fly or enter my county court house
America has lost a great deal of it civility replaced by vile and angry language…
We have become a me-me generation…
Only am I optimistic in the long term, as we will paid a most exacting price for decades
of laying in the liberal lair….
While Cheerleading is all very well, the 5 points are all debatable as anything more than past history. Note: these points do not apply to the Japanese, and Chinese? Or do they? I think the main point here is that the “American People” are not the same as they were, and don’t act the same . (Thanks to “Diversity”, which is culturally real). So there is little reason to expect them to react as they might have 70 years ago.