5 Reasons to Remain Cyclically Bullish

This is from a recent Orcam Investment Research piece where I described 5 reasons to remain cyclically bullish (not necessarily near-term):

  • The Orcam Recession Model remains constructive (ie, no recession on the horizon).
  • Global growth is stabilizing as seen in monthly PMIs and the Orcam GDP Weighted PMI Index.
  • Risk of a European debt crisis appears contained (for now).
  • Hard landing risk in China has declined.
  • US housing and lending trends are showing reversal trends in the balance sheet recession.



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Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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  • Stephen

    I wish you had added a 6th point along the lines of “And there is a decent possibility that all 5 reasons have already been priced in so what do I do to account for that?”.

  • perpetual neophyte

    The descriptive part is free. The (portfolio) prescriptive part you have to pay for. :)

  • Anon

    Could you expand on the fourth point in subsequent pieces? There is data to support and to detract from the positive view on Chinese economic progress. The most recent data point, however, the 14%+ gain in trade is simply risible. More to the point, it quite simply isn’t supported by China’s trading partners’ data.
    It’s arguable that the figure was released propagandistically: to encourage further foreign investment and more importantly quell domestic anxieties. And that may have a virtuous effect- increased confidence leading to greater activity, thereby reinforcing confidence, and so on- but it does not validate the data.