This is from a recent Orcam Investment Research piece where I described 5 reasons to remain cyclically bullish (not necessarily near-term):
- The Orcam Recession Model remains constructive (ie, no recession on the horizon).
- Global growth is stabilizing as seen in monthly PMIs and the Orcam GDP Weighted PMI Index.
- Risk of a European debt crisis appears contained (for now).
- Hard landing risk in China has declined.
- US housing and lending trends are showing reversal trends in the balance sheet recession.