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6 MACRO FORECASTS FROM GOLDMAN SACHS

15 September 2009 by Cullen Roche 2 Comments

Goldman has some very broad macro themes that support their thesis for an economic recovery.  Below are the 6 key components of their macro thesis:

1. We expect real GDP to rise at a 3% annual rate during the second half of 2009.

2. However, recovery in 2010 is apt to be more anemic.

3. The unemployment rate should continue to drift up, to about 10¼% by year-end 2010.

4. Inflation is not a significant threat, at least for the next few years.

5. Monetary tightening is highly unlikely before the
end of 2010.

6. Treasury yields should come down.

Source: Goldman Sachs

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Comments
  • Paul

    Hi TPC, what is your sense of where S&P might go near term before any pull back? It seems very odd with a straight up move since early Sept.

    09/15/2009 at 3:57 AM
  • Aki_Izayoi

    “1. We expect real GDP to rise at a 3% annual rate during the second half of 2009.

    2. However, recovery in 2010 is apt to be more anemic.

    3. The unemployment rate should continue to drift up, to about 10¼% by year-end 2010.

    4. Inflation is not a significant threat, at least for the next few years.

    5. Monetary tightening is highly unlikely before the
    end of 2010.

    6. Treasury yields should come down.”

    1. correct since it says “real” and it would be a valid prediction in a deflationary environment.

    2-6. Correct. Damn… I am not a contrarian,

    09/15/2009 at 8:26 AM