6 MACRO FORECASTS FROM GOLDMAN SACHS
15 September 2009 by TPC
2 Comments
Goldman has some very broad macro themes that support their thesis for an economic recovery. Below are the 6 key components of their macro thesis:
1. We expect real GDP to rise at a 3% annual rate during the second half of 2009.
2. However, recovery in 2010 is apt to be more anemic.
3. The unemployment rate should continue to drift up, to about 10¼% by year-end 2010.
4. Inflation is not a significant threat, at least for the next few years.
5. Monetary tightening is highly unlikely before the
end of 2010.6. Treasury yields should come down.
Source: Goldman Sachs
More on this topic
(What's this?)
Goldman Gives Preferred Clients Stock Trading Tips Early, Defends Practice
(naked capitalism, 8/24/09)
Guest Post: More Goldman Lies
(naked capitalism, 10/15/09)
Focus on Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
(Short-Term Trading, 3/14/10)
Employment Data: What Can You Believe?
(Investment U, 8/26/09)
Hi TPC, what is your sense of where S&P might go near term before any pull back? It seems very odd with a straight up move since early Sept.
“1. We expect real GDP to rise at a 3% annual rate during the second half of 2009.
2. However, recovery in 2010 is apt to be more anemic.
3. The unemployment rate should continue to drift up, to about 10¼% by year-end 2010.
4. Inflation is not a significant threat, at least for the next few years.
5. Monetary tightening is highly unlikely before the
end of 2010.
6. Treasury yields should come down.”
1. correct since it says “real” and it would be a valid prediction in a deflationary environment.
2-6. Correct. Damn… I am not a contrarian,
MARKET QUOTES
THIS WEEKS MOST POPULAR STORIES
MARKET NEWS