A Look Ahead to Q1 GDP

Today’s personal income data caused a number of firms to upgrade their estimates for Q1 GDP. ┬áHere is a smattering of estimates (some old, some new) for Q1:

  • Consensus: 2.8%
  • Merrill Lynch: 3.0%
  • Nomura Securities: 2.5%
  • Goldman Sachs: 3.4%
  • Macro Advisers: 3.5%

The Orcam Recession Index is (has been) telling a similar story – the risk of recession remains low (Via Orcam Investment Research):

 

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Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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