ACTIVE TRADERS MOST BULLISH SINCE BULL MARKET BEGAN….
Bullish sentiment is surging according the most recent Charles Schwab active trader survey. CNBC reported that the survey shows bullishness at its highest level since Schwab began the survey 4 years ago:
“Bullish sentiment among the most active clients of Charles Schwab hit its highest level since the current bull market began, according to a recent survey by the firm.
The jump in optimism from this group may signal the less active crowd will soon follow, propelling the rally to a fourth year, market analysts said.
Fifty-one percent of individual investors who trade frequently are now bullish, according to the Charles Schwab Active Trader Sentiment Survey, the highest level since they began surveying these clients in April 2008.”
Source: CNBC
Cullen Roche
Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.
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10 Comments
Market psychology is so weird…
When everybody leans toward the bullish side of the boat it actually tends to reinforce trend whereas when everybody has leaned bearish it nearly always marks the reversal point.
Yet again, another valuable lesson – it always pays to be bullish as the market will ALWAYS make you whole (and no, don’t use Japan to prove this point wrong as we are NOT Japan…quite clear that the Japanese situation of the past 20 years is plainly a demographic problem and nothing else)…
On live the bull market! Cheers to all who have the balls to go long still and try to get rich!
B Ferro,
What do you watch to market the reversal point in a bull market?
Thanks for all your commentary – tremendously helpful!
Ben
Prices and volatiity Ben. Seriously, it’s that’s simple. As it stands prices go up and good and bad data alike and volatility is non-existent.
I love pointing out the 87 crash as an example of this…the market was ~12% off its high before the actual crash day hit…the market gave you advance warning if you listened. Go the April-10 top before the 20% pull-back and what do you see? About ~10 trading days of thrasing, up/down 1% rally/sell-off days (i.e., lots of volatility).
The market’s always whispering its next move to you before it makes it…it’s up to us not to be smart, but to merely listen…
Again, no doubting Hussman is brilliant (come on, Standford PHD?) but he’s chosen not to listen to the market’s message…
But Ben, I am incredibly passionate about the market and love to help where I can and am willing…
Never hesitate to reach out (bferro04 at gmail)
Hussman does understand the volatility thing you mention – I’ve sen him discuss the fact that the market does tend to get more volatile before a downward move.
Just follow the FED – when they tightened then go short. At this point earliest time to worry about shorting is 2014 I guess. On the note from B Ferro about market having a bullish bias, that is true because of the inherent nature of the inflation expectations.
I have to wonder though if we are seeing the real life version of “The Hunger Games” being played out. With small enclaves getting richer and more powerful while most of the populace get progressively poorer and weaker. The likes of B Ferro, CR, etc who understood the games and can secure a spot in the Winners’ circle (secure financially) for the rest of their lives.
Their trading volume is down.
In the 80s President Reagan saw where the FED balance sheet was headed and that they had moved the SS funds into the general revenue funds. Therefore,he promoted the individual retirement account (IRA), to get the money out of the FEDs hands and into free men and women’s hands that had created it. The IRS Bill was passed (NO EXECUTIVE ORDER) by congress; which made it Constitutional. From 1986 on, people started opening IRAs and huge amounts of money was placed into investment Funds every week and every month. By 1992, 90% of all the investment Funds that were in existence, had been created since 1986! Massive amounts of money flowed into these funds at the same time that the high “tech” markets were being created; wow, what an experience!
That experience is history, yet many people are still trading as if it were here forever, but it’s not!
Before too long, money is going to start flowing out of IRAs, the FEDs are taking over all kinds of markets and we know where that leads… and it’s NOT a pretty picture. So, the game has changed and you had better change with it.
Also, this is an election year and since your socialist president is doing everything he can to take over all the free markets we have a huge game changer and he has over 300 Million dollars in his re-election fund… where did that money come from? If you don’t know, you don’t have a clue about what’s going on and what’s going to happen. Very scary times, in my opinion.
We have a little less than 50 million people on food stamps, and growing, hell, they are even advertising on TV! You had better wake up to the fact that this is a changing country and it’s NOT for the better, if you believe in Free Men and Free Markets!
If you haven’t notice and if you don’t do any financial research for the rest of the year, be sure and check the “adjustments” in all the FEDs financial numbers, within a few days after the election.
But, look at the likes of Santorum and Romney. It certainly gives you pause. Their plans for shrinking the economy via the government are a worry. Look at the British as a model of austerity.
Correction: “The IRS Bill was passed” — should have been the IRA Bill!