Comments on: ARE TRANSPORTS FLASHING A FALSE BUY SIGNAL? http://pragcap.com/are-transports-flashing-a-false-buy-signal Sat, 20 Mar 2010 10:10:08 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Jay (marketfolly) http://pragcap.com/are-transports-flashing-a-false-buy-signal#comment-2005 Jay (marketfolly) Sun, 14 Jun 2009 07:28:01 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5211#comment-2005 love following the transports as leading economic indicators. problem is, they seem to be following the same 'play the perception, not the reality' mentality floating around right now. as you've said, gotta respect the price action. will continue to monitor the transports though. BDI is another signal I'll watch, but less closely since there's other external factors affecting the bulk shippers. Good old straight up rails and trucks are the way to go for the purest indication. love following the transports as leading economic indicators. problem is, they seem to be following the same ‘play the perception, not the reality’ mentality floating around right now. as you’ve said, gotta respect the price action.

will continue to monitor the transports though. BDI is another signal I’ll watch, but less closely since there’s other external factors affecting the bulk shippers. Good old straight up rails and trucks are the way to go for the purest indication.

]]> By: prescient11 http://pragcap.com/are-transports-flashing-a-false-buy-signal#comment-1996 prescient11 Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:50:18 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5211#comment-1996 No one gets it, E, it's frigging scary. TPC, I hear you, trust me, I lightened up AH a bit on my shorts because I didn't want too much exposure. Also, this is no bull market, just a very very powerful bear market rally. Let's see, when the news broke about Iran's elections, that shot us up about 4-5 points on the snp instantly, now that the old bastard one and they're falling into chaos, what's that good for, another 10-20 point bump. This market is nothing but a casino right now except for short plays that should eventually work out, just make sure there's not a lot of decay on shorts you plan to hold for a while, because it is impossible to know when this thing tumbles. But should I feel comfortable about buying SPYs after a 40% runup!!! Off of nothing. I think not. No one gets it, E, it’s frigging scary. TPC, I hear you, trust me, I lightened up AH a bit on my shorts because I didn’t want too much exposure. Also, this is no bull market, just a very very powerful bear market rally.

Let’s see, when the news broke about Iran’s elections, that shot us up about 4-5 points on the snp instantly, now that the old bastard one and they’re falling into chaos, what’s that good for, another 10-20 point bump. This market is nothing but a casino right now except for short plays that should eventually work out, just make sure there’s not a lot of decay on shorts you plan to hold for a while, because it is impossible to know when this thing tumbles.

But should I feel comfortable about buying SPYs after a 40% runup!!! Off of nothing. I think not.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/are-transports-flashing-a-false-buy-signal#comment-1992 TPC Sat, 13 Jun 2009 14:55:09 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5211#comment-1992 Haven't looked into changing the comments section yet. I'll get around to it at some point. This new layout is still being tweaked every day.... Haven’t looked into changing the comments section yet. I’ll get around to it at some point. This new layout is still being tweaked every day….

]]> By: E http://pragcap.com/are-transports-flashing-a-false-buy-signal#comment-1991 E Sat, 13 Jun 2009 14:45:47 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5211#comment-1991 Pres, sorry about that, put your name in the box, meant is here should read E, says (need edit button TPC) he mkt looks likes its topping, but who the heck knows…. can you remember the last time the mkt closed 50 pts lower….well the dow did i think -250 about two weeks ago and maybe a -61? this week….im just guessing, and i might be wrong, but it sure feels like its up up and away…day after day after day i am short a ton T O N of nas 100…. how many times in the past 2 weeks has the nazzy been down say -22, -29, -27 interday, only to end -3, or -7, or even +14…. (no sense even waiting for devil’s hour (from 3:00-4:00) to see the real action, might as well wait till 3:50 to really see how it goes…. as for manipulation….the govt removed the systematic failure risk with implied bank rescue at all costs…(well, no cost to the bond holders….or even common share holders….my god…MY GOD….HOW CAN THE COMMON SHARES NOT BE WIPED OUT???!!!????….they are not even a creditor….banks are INSOLVENT…. the govt is backing survival so equity should be Z E R O ! ! ! ! ahhhhhh i rant everyday……. the worst part of it is when a co-worker says….”hey its a bull market, are you in yet? still short? market is up….recession to end” the general public does not get it AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH Pres, sorry about that, put your name in the box, meant is here

should read

E, says (need edit button TPC)

he mkt looks likes its topping, but who the heck knows….

can you remember the last time the mkt closed 50 pts lower….well the dow did i think -250 about two weeks ago and maybe a -61? this week….im just guessing, and i might be wrong, but it sure feels like its up up and away…day after day after day

i am short a ton T O N of nas 100….

how many times in the past 2 weeks has the nazzy been down say -22, -29, -27 interday, only to end -3, or -7, or even +14…. (no sense even waiting for devil’s hour (from 3:00-4:00) to see the real action, might as well wait till 3:50 to really see how it goes….

as for manipulation….the govt removed the systematic failure risk with implied bank rescue at all costs…(well, no cost to the bond holders….or even common share holders….my god…MY GOD….HOW CAN THE COMMON SHARES NOT BE WIPED OUT???!!!????….they are not even a creditor….banks are INSOLVENT….

the govt is backing survival so equity should be Z E R O ! ! ! !

ahhhhhh

i rant everyday…….

the worst part of it is when a co-worker says….”hey its a bull market, are you in yet? still short? market is up….recession to end”

the general public does not get it

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

]]> By: Pres http://pragcap.com/are-transports-flashing-a-false-buy-signal#comment-1990 Pres Sat, 13 Jun 2009 14:43:50 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5211#comment-1990 the mkt looks likes its topping, but who the heck knows.... can you remember the last time the mkt closed 50 pts lower....well the dow did i think -250 about two weeks ago and maybe a -61? this week....im just guessing, and i might be wrong, but it sure feels like its up up and away...day after day after day i am short a ton T O N of nas 100.... how many times in the past 2 weeks has the nazzy been down say -22, -29, -27 interday, only to end -3, or -7, or even +14.... (no sense even waiting for devil's hour (from 3:00-4:00) to see the real action, might as well wait till 3:50 to really see how it goes.... as for manipulation....the govt removed the systematic failure risk with implied bank rescue at all costs...(well, no cost to the bond holders....or even common share holders....my god...MY GOD....HOW CAN THE COMMON SHARES NOT BE WIPED OUT???!!!????....they are not even a creditor....banks are INSOLVENT.... the govt is backing survival so equity should be Z E R O ! ! ! ! ahhhhhh i rant everyday....... the worst part of it is when a co-worker says...."hey its a bull market, are you in yet? still short? market is up....recession to end" the general public does not get it AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH the mkt looks likes its topping, but who the heck knows….

can you remember the last time the mkt closed 50 pts lower….well the dow did i think -250 about two weeks ago and maybe a -61? this week….im just guessing, and i might be wrong, but it sure feels like its up up and away…day after day after day

i am short a ton T O N of nas 100….

how many times in the past 2 weeks has the nazzy been down say -22, -29, -27 interday, only to end -3, or -7, or even +14…. (no sense even waiting for devil’s hour (from 3:00-4:00) to see the real action, might as well wait till 3:50 to really see how it goes….

as for manipulation….the govt removed the systematic failure risk with implied bank rescue at all costs…(well, no cost to the bond holders….or even common share holders….my god…MY GOD….HOW CAN THE COMMON SHARES NOT BE WIPED OUT???!!!????….they are not even a creditor….banks are INSOLVENT….

the govt is backing survival so equity should be Z E R O ! ! ! !

ahhhhhh

i rant everyday…….

the worst part of it is when a co-worker says….”hey its a bull market, are you in yet? still short? market is up….recession to end”

the general public does not get it

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/are-transports-flashing-a-false-buy-signal#comment-1989 TPC Sat, 13 Jun 2009 14:43:37 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5211#comment-1989 You've gotta respect the price action. This is one tough bull market we're seeing. Although I think that we will be right in the long-run you have to respect the near-term price action. I still have that small SP short on, but I don't feel good about it until June ends. Then I'll revisit the short side and likely get aggressive. As for now, the price action is just too powerful and the herd is in a full sprint for the cliff.... You’ve gotta respect the price action. This is one tough bull market we’re seeing. Although I think that we will be right in the long-run you have to respect the near-term price action.

I still have that small SP short on, but I don’t feel good about it until June ends. Then I’ll revisit the short side and likely get aggressive. As for now, the price action is just too powerful and the herd is in a full sprint for the cliff….

]]> By: prescient11 http://pragcap.com/are-transports-flashing-a-false-buy-signal#comment-1987 prescient11 Sat, 13 Jun 2009 14:26:17 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5211#comment-1987 E, I find that hilarious. I got temporarily heavy short going into the weekend. E, I find that hilarious. I got temporarily heavy short going into the weekend.

]]> By: prescient11 http://pragcap.com/are-transports-flashing-a-false-buy-signal#comment-1984 prescient11 Sat, 13 Jun 2009 13:54:46 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5211#comment-1984 TPC, does it bother anyone that Fed manipulation is assumed by everyone. Get these clowns out of our markets!! TPC, does it bother anyone that Fed manipulation is assumed by everyone.

Get these clowns out of our markets!!

]]> By: E http://pragcap.com/are-transports-flashing-a-false-buy-signal#comment-1982 E Sat, 13 Jun 2009 12:39:43 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5211#comment-1982 you mean the markets rise is disconnected from the fundamentals.... HELLO, me, you, Hussman, Tice....(list goes on)...your neighbor, friend.... we all know that.... and that is the what half your blog is about..... its all about confidence my friends....all dollar cost averagers.....are in a world of hope.... its about confidence..... We are a disaster (dont know what) away from more market declines....but so far the disaster is me and my short portfolio..... game is rigged, fix is in (on the banks) i guess until the hedgies start shorting them (in the face of govt bitch slapping) they wont go down and the tech bubble is fermenting im dont with my rant thanks for the site..... -E you mean the markets rise is disconnected from the fundamentals….

HELLO, me, you, Hussman, Tice….(list goes on)…your neighbor, friend….

we all know that….

and that is the what half your blog is about…..

its all about confidence

my friends….all dollar cost averagers…..are in a world of hope….

its about confidence…..

We are a disaster (dont know what) away from more market declines….but so far the disaster is me and my short portfolio…..

game is rigged, fix is in (on the banks)

i guess until the hedgies start shorting them (in the face of govt bitch slapping) they wont go down

and the tech bubble is fermenting

im dont with my rant

thanks for the site…..

-E

]]>