I didn’t think so before, but follow my thinking here:
1) We will not see a real recovery in 2010.
2) The Fed will keep rates low through all of 2010.
2) We will initiate stim pack 2 at some point in the first or second quarter.
All of this means the dollar will stay weak. if we pass the trillion dollar healthcare plan and stim pack 2 what will happen to the dollar? I didn’t think so before, but this has the very real potential to turn into a dollar crisis.
Someone is playing this chess game 10 moves ahead….Nice thoughts SS. I’d have to say I was in the same boat as well up until the last Fed meeting. This government has not a care in the world for our currency or our deficits. They will plunder the Treasury without a care in the world.
I’d still put the odds of a dollar crisis at less than 10%, but we are building the momentum here in a very bad direction. This consistent dollar devaluation simply cannot be sustained. At some point it will either reverse or spiral out of control.
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# 9 November 2009 at 11:00 AM
billw said:
TPC,
I can not believe that we are paying Obama, Bernanke,Geithner et. at. to play with our economic future and devalue our currency at will. When they are through there will be no value left with which to fight through this depression. And by definition we are in a depression when our unemployment data has consistently been as high or higher than the Great Depression for almost a year. That is by calculating unemployment using the same metrics that were used back then.
The only thing keeping people from revolting in the streets is that we have relatively good unemployment checks. So as long as people have money for the basics there is no great hue and cry from the masses.
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# 9 November 2009 at 12:03 PM
teomax said:
tpc
well, lets imagine this “v-recovery” idea is holding up until next summer and with weak dollar you are going to have oil over 120 for sure – just look summer 07 to summer 08 oil bull run. thats the point when BEN will have to take care of USD value, otherwise they have free card to devalue dollar as much as they want. the only thing to stop them is higher oil prices.
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# 9 November 2009 at 12:29 PM
van said:
TPC,
What happens to your ‘What’s on Tap’ posts, I went through the previous pages and couldn’t find them?
Sorry about that. You can always find posts by using the search function. “Tap” would lead you right to it. Unfortunately, headline posts get snagged and don’t get reposted unless I physically change the location. TPC needs to start hiring some help….The site is becoming far larger than I ever could have imagined….
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# 9 November 2009 at 12:31 PM
Paul said:
Art has been mostly wrong since March. You would have missed many many money making opportunities, just a word of caution. On the other hand he still has a job and so it seems many people follow him.
Yeah…they got through this time…
I didn’t think so before, but follow my thinking here:
1) We will not see a real recovery in 2010.
2) The Fed will keep rates low through all of 2010.
2) We will initiate stim pack 2 at some point in the first or second quarter.
All of this means the dollar will stay weak. if we pass the trillion dollar healthcare plan and stim pack 2 what will happen to the dollar? I didn’t think so before, but this has the very real potential to turn into a dollar crisis.
TPC Reply:
November 9th, 2009 at 11:05 AM
Someone is playing this chess game 10 moves ahead….Nice thoughts SS. I’d have to say I was in the same boat as well up until the last Fed meeting. This government has not a care in the world for our currency or our deficits. They will plunder the Treasury without a care in the world.
I’d still put the odds of a dollar crisis at less than 10%, but we are building the momentum here in a very bad direction. This consistent dollar devaluation simply cannot be sustained. At some point it will either reverse or spiral out of control.
TPC,
I can not believe that we are paying Obama, Bernanke,Geithner et. at. to play with our economic future and devalue our currency at will. When they are through there will be no value left with which to fight through this depression. And by definition we are in a depression when our unemployment data has consistently been as high or higher than the Great Depression for almost a year. That is by calculating unemployment using the same metrics that were used back then.
The only thing keeping people from revolting in the streets is that we have relatively good unemployment checks. So as long as people have money for the basics there is no great hue and cry from the masses.
tpc
well, lets imagine this “v-recovery” idea is holding up until next summer and with weak dollar you are going to have oil over 120 for sure – just look summer 07 to summer 08 oil bull run. thats the point when BEN will have to take care of USD value, otherwise they have free card to devalue dollar as much as they want. the only thing to stop them is higher oil prices.
TPC,
What happens to your ‘What’s on Tap’ posts, I went through the previous pages and couldn’t find them?
TPC Reply:
November 9th, 2009 at 12:35 PM
Van,
Sorry about that. You can always find posts by using the search function. “Tap” would lead you right to it. Unfortunately, headline posts get snagged and don’t get reposted unless I physically change the location. TPC needs to start hiring some help….The site is becoming far larger than I ever could have imagined….
Art has been mostly wrong since March. You would have missed many many money making opportunities, just a word of caution. On the other hand he still has a job and so it seems many people follow him.
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