ATA: TRUCKING INDEX DECLINED -4% IN JANUARY
The ATA reported a -4% drop in trucking for the month of January. It’s not all that alarming given December’s big gain, but the recent decline in rails combined with the drop in trucking means we’ll be keeping a close eye on the transport data in the week’s ahead. Here’s more from the ATA (via Calculated Risk):
“The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 4.0% in January after surging 6.4% in December 2011. The latest contraction put the SA index at 119.4 (2000=100), down from December’s record level of 124.4.
ATA recently revised the seasonally adjusted index back five years as part of its annual revision. For all of 2011, tonnage rose 5.8%, slightly lower than the 5.9% previously reported, and matched 2010’s gain of the same magnitude. The index increased 3.6% from January 2011.
The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 112.1 in January, which was 3.5% below the previous month.
“Last month I said I was surprised by the size of the gain in December. Today, I’m not surprised that tonnage fell on a seasonally adjusted basis in January simply due to the fact that December was so strong,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. Costello noted that December’s increase was the largest month-to-month gain since January 2005.
“I’m still optimistic about truck tonnage going forward. In fact, while many fleets said January was normal, they are also saying that February has been pretty good so far,” he said. “
This seems to be confirming what has been reported by Ceridian-UCLA’s pulse of commerce index.
http://ceridianindex.com/
So is data starting to converge LA’s way? RIlroad, trucking, durables, homerices still declining….
He has said many times, and it is a key thought he drives in their hix businesscyle book, which I read a few years ago, that it is precisely at turning points that data is noisiest.
Octavio,
This quote is the best summation of why relying upon expert economic forecasters is useless for investing (with the exception of ECRI so far):
“it is precisely at turning points that data is noisiest.”
Jan 2008 was the turning point for the last economic cycle and it was so completely missed that as late as August 2008, the consensus of economic forecasts was for 2.2% growth.
Brian Wesbury one of the most vocal perma-bulls that you will ever find had this to say on his forecast of July 21, 2008, 8 months after the onset of the Great Recession:
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/growth_was_solid_in_q2.pdf
“Now, three months later, the consensus is up to 2.2%.
And no surprise – we are forecasting a 3% growth rate,
more bullish than almost any other economist.”
“Eventually, those forecasting recession are going to
run out of time. The clock is already ticking and the
economy remains resilient.”
How that didn’t end his career as an expert forecaster I’ll never understand. It appears that if you are bearish and right on Wallstreet you get fired and if you are a perma-bull you get promoted.
Truthfully if ECRI is right this time then we will have in my opinion a waterfall sell-off that will cause us to retest the 09 lows because the disappointment level this time around will be even greater than 08 if that is possible.
The durable goods number yesterday was a warning shot and the beginning of a potential confirmation of the ECRI call.
If you are bullish there are many reasons to remains so but if you are bearish there are also reasons to remains so. We live in interesting times.
You can also add this data to the list: Long Beach Containers:
http://www.polb.com/economics/stats/latest_teus.asp
Has anyone ever experimented on their own. When I read retail is up, or down, I like to drive through the concentrated shopping districts at times you would expect shoppers to be out. You can sometimes feel the connection to media reports. One observation I’ve made over the years… gas prices seem to act like a light switch on people’s shopping psyche. Since pump prices spiked, I can find parking spots very close to the entrance at the most heavily shopped areas. Nothing demoralizes the consumer more than a budgetary item he or she can’t control. Retail consumption accounts for 70% ? of GDP. Watch for it to abruptly fall off a cliff if there’s no relief at the pump.