BARTON BIGGS: 75% LONG
26 July 2010 by Staff
8 Comments
Barton Biggs, co-founder of Traxis Partners LP, is sounding bullish again just one month after saying that we were at risk of repeating the 1930′s and cutting his bullish position:
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Comments
Oh yeah – a 75% long hedge fund. Buy me the SPY with zero mgt fee
Wow. Just another example of public bullishness and bearishness correlating well with the timescale of human short term memory.
Maybe this is the perfect advertisement for why it never pays to do self-aggrandizing TV spots talking your book when you run $1B+ or any amount I suppose.
Sounds like CNBC. Whatever way the wind is blowing he follows. Does he think everyone has forgotten what he said just a couple of weeks back when he was extremely bearish. He is a joke…how did this guy ever make a name for himself….must have caught a string of luck that made him look smart.
My preferred scenario is a spike into SPX 1120-30 range then pullback into 1050 in August to make Arch Crawford happy, setting up a REVERSE head&shoulders. My experience is that short-term traders chart more and short more, so reverse H&S can be more powerful than H&S. This sets up an explosive short-covering rally into Sept-Oct.
My calls posted here at TPC, I am a CFA
Jan 2010, 20% correction 1st half, rally into Oct
late May 2010, no crash 2010, less than 20% decline, DJ 11500 by Oct (actual, DJ -14.2%)
Technical perspective
1 – Presidential cycle, crash into Oct 2010, huge rally 2011 – unlikely, too mainstream
2 – Louise Yamada, 1937-41 comparison, 20% correction, retrace, 2-year bear market
3 – 15 year H&S on DJIA, more bullish short-term (11.5k), more bearish long-term (4-5k)
– essentially we are in a period like 1999.q3-2000.q2 where DJ ranged 9800-11800
So when does the rally end? 2011 or 2012? My target has been SP500 at 550 by 2011 since mid-2008. I got out of the market in July to Oct 2007 and jumped back in halfway in Feb-Mar 2009 only to jump out at 950 in June 09 and back in at 1000 in August 09 (now only 30% long). I don’t want to risk more since the market is overvalued but I don’t dare risk less or put too many eggs in the cash basket which is also dangerous with the unprecidented monetary policy. (Just when all the inflationistas have moved to the deflation camp, inflation will take off.)
I was starting to think that the short squeeze would bring the market back close to 1200, until I saw that Barton Biggs (contrarian indicator) is now more long than before.
C. Stice “how did this guy ever make a name for himself….”
They go fishing and when they get it right they brag about it for months in there internet sites money letters and adds. If he is correct every one will forget is previous bad call.
I prefer astrology at least I learn the names of some stars.
Are profits not coming from layoffs, plant closings, and all kinds of cost-cutting measures?
If sales are down and profits are up this is not necessarily a good long term picture.