What we’re reading tonight:

The Cost of Not Understanding Probability Theory –  Math Blog

The Market Has Likely Topped –  Kass

The Day Wall Street Was Shaken To Its Core –  Harrison

China’s Rare Metals Ban Could Cause Big Problems –  Telegraph

Reader Dean adds this excellent video on CRE:

Keep an eye on Asia.  Things are looking ugly in Tokyo:



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Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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  • Dean

    Commercial real estate is also an interesting topic:

  • James

    I only read the Kass article…I feel he is kind of right. But I think we still are at least 10-15% higher sometime at the end of the year. I do believe investors will eventually be disappointed, and it may be this fall or not, where there is a 10-20% drop in the indices due to ‘fear that the good news isn’t sustainable’. But then I believe we end higher than we are now. In 2010…I don’t know what happens. Let me add that it is imperative to be open minded to the fact that the gov. is involved in the markets. And they have done a great job at enticing people back in for fear of missing out. So they may even let the markets drop a bit and then pump it back up with huge amounts of liquidity in order to get even more people to buy into the markets for the ‘next leg up’. It is all psychology.

  • Paul

    Record 7.32% mortgages late on payment Ironically banks have been making billions with record bonuses and led this last leg of the rally.

  • ChickenLittle

    In the rare earth metals ban article, it makes mention of a mining company in the U.S., Molycorp Mining. Privately owned company. Guess who has their fingers in the pie. Geez louise, I am starting to believe all the conspiracy theorists who say Goldman owns everything.