Comments on: THE BIG MONEY IS BULLISH WHILE SMALL MONEY IS BEARISH

By: Guilherme Ceschiatti

Guilherme Ceschiatti — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 13:04:13 +0000

What is the nonreportable field in the CFTC reports? Is it composed mainly of retail traders?

By: Roomi

Roomi — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 10:06:51 +0000

…opposite of big money… (typo)

By: Roomi

Roomi — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 10:04:47 +0000

Well, by this indicator all the wrong market participants were consistenly long gold 2006 through 2009… And small money is opposite of long money, because, of course, total net position in market at any time adds up to exactly zero.

By: SHB

SHB — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 04:55:41 +0000

Just found your article on Commitments of Small Speculators fascinating.
I tried to set up the data so that I could follow it in the future but I am at a loss.

Which of the many COT reports have the weekly data to construct the value of the small speculators commitments??

Deeply appreciate and enjoyed the article.

SHB

By: jt26

jt26 — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 00:24:00 +0000

BTW the standard deviation on 4 years and best-case, quarterly expiry data (sorry, just guessing) would expect, by chance, 50% +/- 25%. Sorry, 60% is not significant.

By: bbrogs

bbrogs — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:29:04 +0000

Sentiment Trader reports each week total $Doolar commitments of Commercials (pros)
as of last week
C.O.T. SP500 – $COMBO (Dec. 11th)
PROS are s Net Short -$15 Billion contracts
June ’09 = Pros were 2 Standard Deviation Max Long = Correct
Nov ’08 = Pros 2 std.dev. Max Short = Correct
April ’08 = Pros near 2 std.dev.Max Short = Correct
Aug.’07 = Pros 2 std.dev.Max Long = Wrong
Feb.’07 = Pros near 2 std. dev. Max Short = Correct
April ’06 = Pros 2 std. dev.record Max Short = Wrong

PROS Batting average = +62.5% correct since ’06
Sorry when it comes to SP500 I trust the Pros (smart money)

By: TPC

TPC — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:28:08 +0000

As a short-term (weeks) indicator I would put a bit more faith in the Rydex data. The futures data is likely a sign of a bit longer outlook (medium term – a few months)

By: RMB

RMB — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:17:32 +0000

How does this chart compare with the Rydex Bull-Bear?

The Rydex says there are many bulls and few bears. So is the Rydex truer to the big money versus small money?

By: TPC

TPC — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:35:41 +0000

This is the primary reason why the large speculators and commercial data is difficult to gauge. Rather, it’s the small specs that tend to serve as a decent market indicator.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:20:54 +0000

With hedgies and insurance companies, or anyone playing long-short, and across asset classes … Is this information useful at all … we’re potentially seeing one side/aspect of a trade.