BRIC PMI’S POINT TO GLOBAL ECONOMIC STABILIZATION
Here is some good global macro news to start the year as global PMIs are reported. The BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) posted stronger than expected data with Brazil’s PMI coming in at 49.1, Russia at 52.6, India at 54.2 and China at 48.7. Overall, the story from the reports was one of modest growth, but certainly nothing that resembles the broad fear of global slow-down that has persisted in recent months. The following comments are via Markit:
“The main message from the latest HSBC Manufacturing PMI index is that the deterioration in Brazil’s manufacturing sector business conditions continued to ease in December. ”
“the current, still benign rate of economic activity expansion may be prone to an abrupt fall if current business expectations come true. By and large, the downside risks for economic growth in Russia are mounting.”
“Activity in the manufacturing sector rebounded in December led by higher demand from both domestic and foreign clients, suggesting that the momentum in the sector is not quite as weak as official and more dated IP data would suggest.”
“While the pace of slowdown is stabilizing somewhat, weakening external demand is starting to bite. This, plus the ongoing property market corrections, adds to calls for more aggressive action on both fiscal and monetary fronts to stabilize growth and jobs, especially with prices easing rapidly. Hard landings should be avoided so long as easing measures filter through in the coming months.”
Source: Markit
Would This Not Mean Those Countries Will Continue to have Inflation pressures? Is that not the point of tighter monetary policy? How can India ease policy when the currency has lost some 30% the last 3-4 months?
Does anyone have an opinion about what the velocity of money has been doing? M1, M2, and MZM velocity have been falling since Q2 10. If I understand it correctly this could simply mean that the amount of currency moved to checking account or savings account has outpaced total transactions, and if this is due to money moving out of Europe and into the US then falling velocity doesn’t signal doom and gloom.
Any thoughts?
I would caution anyone believing the current data being published by China. You may have noticed that the Premier is beginning to clamp down on citizens rights due to “Western influence”. This is the beginning Chinese governments attempt to arrest the citizens discontent as the economy continues to falter.
As far as money velocity slowing down…if we are interconnected economically then a slowdown of velocity is a symptom that Europeans are entering a period of deflation.