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BULL VERSUS BEAR

26 October 2009 by Cullen Roche 6 Comments

Marc Faber is terribly bearish over the long-term and even sees the dollar falling to ZERO.  Meanwhile, Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, believes this recovery is no different from any other:

Bull -

achuthan

Bear -

faber

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Comments
  • FDO15

    Would anyone bet their money on Achuthan over Faber? I think you’d have to be a crazy man to do such a thing.

    10/26/2009 at 5:21 PM
  • Aki_Izayoi

    I am betting on neither… short term bearish on stocks (I think we have met resistance on earnings season)… I cannot be medium term bearish because almost everyone is long-term bearish. Markets have a way of making the doubting Thomas’ into believers.

    How many people are positioned for a near-term correction? And are people bearish or bullish on the market (not the economy… you cannot be a contrarian on the economy, and the “inflation deflation” debate is a waste of my time now as it seems the risk/reward for deflation trades are lower.) If there is a correction, it would not be a crash, and the correction will lure people into being bearish, which will allow for a retest of the current highs along with more bullish sentiment, which would set-up for 20-30% decline (think Janaury-March 2009).

    I doubt it would play out that way though…

    I’ll probably get bullish on treasuries (for a deflation trade) if there is another 10 bp rise in yields.

    Also bullish on dollar vs. euro.

    10/26/2009 at 5:41 PM
  • Owen B

    It seems that the Bull vs. Bear thing is not all that it’s cracked up to be. Faber is talking longer-term and Achuthan is talking short-term.

    I’ve also heard ECRI/Achuthan elsewhere saying they think we’ll have more frequent recessions in the years ahead than we’ve seen over last few decades.

    10/26/2009 at 6:23 PM
    • FDO15

      Of course Acuthan claims his call is long-term. That way, if the market collapses in the near-term he can still claim to be correct – which is exactly what they did in 2008 when the market started to collapse when they were bullish.

      10/26/2009 at 6:29 PM
  • James

    The FED is going to stop quantitative easing soon, so they are probably going to get in as many shorts as possible before creating another rally. I am already seeing people becoming very bearish short term. Then again, I suppose they have to be right once?

    10/26/2009 at 8:29 PM