Comments on: BULL VERSUS BEAR

By: James

James — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 03:29:42 +0000

The FED is going to stop quantitative easing soon, so they are probably going to get in as many shorts as possible before creating another rally. I am already seeing people becoming very bearish short term. Then again, I suppose they have to be right once?

By: Van

Van — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 01:52:39 +0000

From Jeremy Grantham:

https://www.gmo.com/America/CMSAttachmentDownload.aspx?target=JUBRxi51IIAs8wlv%2fbfj2bAT26VsvYpj0t45CR%2fKxQWVagaapO70xfyZbVwVmniAtcAJjwP3NY5SmmK8pifrmylR1wQJCqCMrezy4Ju%2bXS0%3d

By: FDO15

FDO15 — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 01:29:03 +0000

Of course Acuthan claims his call is long-term. That way, if the market collapses in the near-term he can still claim to be correct – which is exactly what they did in 2008 when the market started to collapse when they were bullish.

By: Owen B

Owen B — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 01:23:19 +0000

It seems that the Bull vs. Bear thing is not all that it’s cracked up to be. Faber is talking longer-term and Achuthan is talking short-term.

I’ve also heard ECRI/Achuthan elsewhere saying they think we’ll have more frequent recessions in the years ahead than we’ve seen over last few decades.

By: Aki_Izayoi

Aki_Izayoi — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:41:26 +0000

I am betting on neither… short term bearish on stocks (I think we have met resistance on earnings season)… I cannot be medium term bearish because almost everyone is long-term bearish. Markets have a way of making the doubting Thomas’ into believers.

How many people are positioned for a near-term correction? And are people bearish or bullish on the market (not the economy… you cannot be a contrarian on the economy, and the “inflation deflation” debate is a waste of my time now as it seems the risk/reward for deflation trades are lower.) If there is a correction, it would not be a crash, and the correction will lure people into being bearish, which will allow for a retest of the current highs along with more bullish sentiment, which would set-up for 20-30% decline (think Janaury-March 2009).

I doubt it would play out that way though…

I’ll probably get bullish on treasuries (for a deflation trade) if there is another 10 bp rise in yields.

Also bullish on dollar vs. euro.

By: FDO15

FDO15 — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:21:47 +0000

Would anyone bet their money on Achuthan over Faber? I think you’d have to be a crazy man to do such a thing.