THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST » » BULLISH SENTIMENT DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY

BULLISH SENTIMENT DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY

8 January 2010 by TPC 2 Comments

After having entered the year in an overwhelmingly bullish fashion, investors have tempered their bullish perspective a bit. The latest sentiment reading from AAII showed a sharp decline from 49% to 41% bulls. Many investors have expressed caution due to the high reading coming into the beginning of the year. This less bullish position is consistent with the recent data on small speculators from the CFTC.

aaii BULLISH SENTIMENT DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY

Rating: 0.0/10 (0 votes cast)

2 Comments »

TC said:

Individual investors remain more bullish now than on 9/15/08, the day Lehman Brothers took a dirt nap. We all know what followed.

It is a mistake, I believe, to ponder consensus readings from perspective supposing the market remains in a bull market whose beginnings trace back to the 1974/1982 period (not that you are claiming this; I am just making a point). Such a view might suppose that, October 2007 – March 2009 was but a corrective period in the grand scheme of a larger advance.

However, there is a lot of reason to suppose otherwise. Technical evidence suggesting the market’s advance off March ‘09 bottom is but a counter-trend rally in a larger bear market is quite conclusive. Thus, the manner in which the July-September 2008 period offers keen insight into how consensus normally thought supportive of further market advances does not bode the same in a bear market ought not be ignored.

Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)

# 8 January 2010 at 11:01 AM

ike tossia said:

hey there TC
aren’t you a little worried those smoking mirrors will break ? for how much you think the shorts gonna let broker- analysts squeeze them ? you dont think that individual “inwestors” are on to the scheme ? for how long all those big and great companies keep issuing debt ? and why is there such big debts if there so great ? now that the days of securitizing debt are…where do you push this paper to ? was as bullish as it gets in 11/08 on financials and commodities, 01-02/09 on big tech, retailers and all the commodity producer names that just keep on getting upgraded every “seconed”, its great, but that feeling of midd summer 08 that soomething’s just not right is back in the same way… what to do ?