Comments on: BULLISH SENTIMENT PICKS UP

By: chris

chris — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 01:40:17 +0000

the biggest issue i have with shorting against the market, as opposed to shorting with the market (i take it we are in agreement that currently shorting is against the market), is that it involves a certain amount of intellectual/psychologicial hubris

now if that’s what you think, fine, but i have a hard time doing it…i don’t seem to have as much trouble going long against the market, which i suppose supports your point…it may be linked to one’s optimism/pessimism framework generally, but i have a harder time developing negative conviction than positive conviction

as for whether they are really just different sides of the same trade, well i would point out that there are more positive years than negative years

By: TPC

TPC — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 00:15:33 +0000

The dark side? Shorting is no different than going long really. Except I am taking the opposite bet. I am betting your team will come up short. I don’t know why investors are conditioned to be long….

Right now, my team has the upper hand according to my odds. We’ll see how it all plays out.

By: chris

chris — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 00:05:37 +0000

i said tighten stops, not go to the dark side…

By: TPC

TPC — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 23:48:32 +0000

Didnt take much for you to side with me, huh?

By: chris

chris — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 23:27:24 +0000

this is scary, concerning the Hulbert newsletter sentiment index:

“It currently stands at 62.8%, up from 13.8% just one month ago. That’s an awfully big jump for so short a period of time, especially considering that the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a modest 4.4% over this period.”

from http://www.marketwatch.com/story/advisory-bullishness-reaching-too-high-levels-2010-03-05

maybe the party will be ending sooner than i thought…time to tighten stops