The CRB commodities index broke through the apparent support level discussed earlier. Commodities continue to be pressured by the global slowdown and Eurozone driven market stress. Recent dollar strength also added momentum to the selloff.

The NEA released new data on Chinese energy consumption showing just 3.7% year over year growth.  That’s 3.3% lower than the March reading.  China Scope Financial has the details on …

When I was an reconnaissance helicopter pilot in the Army many years ago, that was a popular saying that was passed down by the more experienced pilots, some of whom had flown during the Vietnam War. It was meant to convey our own frailty, and the foolishness of being too eager about finding the enemy’s location.

The CRB commodity index has been a good relative indicator of global risk appetite. During stressed conditions the expectations for global growth declines, forcing commodities lower. Oil prices for example respond to the upside during periods of economic growth. But they also move up due to regional tensions such as those associated with Iran. The CRB index on the other hand tends to respond mostly to growth expectations only.

Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index has been very highly correlated with equity vs bond returns over the last 5 years and recent trends point to a continued negative outlook for equities …

The Warren Buffett comments have ruffled some feathers gauging from the comments here at the site.  And not without good reason.  Among many broad generalizations that Mr. Buffett makes, one …

May 1 marked the beginning of a 6-month period of unfavorable seasonality. Research published by Yale Hirsch in the Trader’s Almanac shows that the market year is broken into two six-month seasonality periods. From May 1 through October 31 seasonality is unfavorable, and the market most often finishes lower than it was at the beginning of the period.

The Citigroup economic surprise index is now clearly in the negative territory in a trend reminiscent of last year’s decline.

When every other segment on financial TV is about the question over whether to “Sell In May And Go Away”, it is natural to wonder whether the belief in seasonality has become overdone. When everyone believes in something so thoroughly, especially about the stock market, can it still remain valid?

In January gold appeared to have completed a correction when it broke above the declining tops line of a fairly steep correction, but the pullback after the breakout was far more trying than we had expected.