I’m doing a pre-emptive Q&A this week covering a macro view of 2013. I generally don’t believe in forecasting a full year out because I think it’s impossible, but that doesn’t mean we can’t provide some general guide posts for the year given what we currently know. I usually update these views on a quarterly basis (more frequently through the [...]
Special Reports
DON’T FIGHT THE LAST WAR
In the science of economics there are no such constants, yet investors often behave as if they operate in a world of logic and certainty. Because such assumptions are made, history is littered with investors who have failed miserably.
CAPITALISM MAKES SOCIALISM ACCEPTABLE
* This post was written in 2011 before Mr. Roche founded Monetary Realism, a post-MMT school that was formed due to several disagreements Mr. Roche and many other former MMT proponents had with the school of thought. For more info on the difference in views please see here. For more on MR’s views please see here. The MMR conversation on savings and [...]
THE U.S.A. IS NOT THE ROMAN EMPIRE….
Time to put on my myth busting cap again. This time, it looks like the USA is turning into Rome. But probably not. This is a comparison we almost always hear from hyperinflationists, those making ridiculous claims about the USA being bankrupt or those who are excessively worried about the influence of the government in the USA. And maybe some of this [...]
THE FACTS THEY DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW
What have Bill Gross, John Paulson, Anthony Bolton and Bill Miller all got in common? They are all ‘rock star’ fund managers who have fallen on hard times more recently. Life in the fund management industry is not what it used to be like. Life is tough even for the supremely skilled. Markets are changing, fund managers are struggling to adapt and clients are growing restless as a result.
THE RUSSIAN DEFAULT – WHAT HAPPENED?
The Russian financial crisis and eventual default is often cited as a counterargument to one of the principle MR ideas that a sovereign currency issuer should not be able to go bankrupt. It’s a complex subject that is worth spending some time on. Russia was a rather unique situation. Most people who study the Russian default are fixated on the [...]
MMT, THE EURO & THE GREATEST PREDICTION OF THE LAST 20 YEARS?
* Update – It’s come to my attention that some of the statements in this piece might be somewhat misplaced. Many different economists have contacted me over the last few months to point out that MMT was not, in fact, the first group of economists to predict the Euro crisis (although that should not detract from the fact that they [...]
EUROPE BUYS SOME TIME….
Let’s not sugarcoat tonight’s “resolution” – this is merely a temporary measure that will buy them more time to resolve the true cause of the currency crisis. Let’s take a brief look at some of the key points of tonight’s statement (read it in full here): “All Member States of the euro area are fully determined to continue their policy [...]
WAITING FOR THE NEXT CRASH – MINSKYAN LESSONS WE FAILED TO LEARN
The conditions that held in 2007 have been replicated, and the next GFC is just waiting for a trigger. The bailout has increased the linkages among the top four or five banks, making the system even more fragile.We’ve lost eight million jobs, opening a demand gap of about $1 trillion.Although some households have defaulted on their debts, and others have repaid portions of theirs, most of the household debt held in 2007 still exists.
THE CASE FOR HIGHER OIL PRICES BY 2012, PART 2
The physical oil market continues to show a remarkable strength even if futures prices are lagging amid worries about the impact of an economic slowdown on crude oil demand. The latest signals of supply and demand tightness come from Asia and the Middle East.
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