“In our latest survey, 74% of money managers identify themselves as bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks — an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years.”
Market Indicators
Bullish Sentiment Declines
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 2.9 percentage points to 35.5%. This is the third consecutive weekly decline. It also puts optimism at its lowest level in a month. The historical average is 39.0%.
Rail Traffic Continues 2013 at a Positive Pace
Rail traffic is continuing to show positive signs here as we head deeper into 2013. Intermodal traffic was up 5.3% year over year which brings the 12 week moving average to a very healthy 4.84%. That’s up from 1.3% earlier this year. Here’s the AAR with more details: “AAR also reported mixed rail traffic for the week ending Feb.16, 2013, [...]
Buffett’s Favorite Valuation Metric Surges Over the 100% Level
For the first time since the recovery began, Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation metric has breached the 100% level. That, of course, is the Wilshire 5,000 total market cap index relative to GNP. See the chart below for historical reference. I only point this out because it’s a rather unusual occurrence and the recent move has been fairly sizable. It happened [...]
China PMI Expands at Fastest Pace in 19 Months
More signs of stabilization in one of the world’s largest economies. Today’s Chinese PMI rose to a 19 month high and solidly in expansionary territory (via Markit): After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted 51.5 in [...]
Bullish Sentiment Rises to its Second Highest Level of the Year
Bullish sentiment rose to its second-highest level of the year, as bearish sentiment fell for the fourth time in the past five weeks in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
What is FedEx Telling us About the Global Economy?
Everyone always thinks that Alcoa kicks off the earnings season, but I don’t see it that way. The real earnings season kicks off with FedEx who usually reports well in advance of Alcoa and gives us a much more meaningful look into the state of the economy. So what’s the global bellwether telling us? Here are some of the key [...]
Rail Traffic: Economy Continues to Soften
More weakness in this week’s rail traffic report. The AAR reported a -0.3% reading in intermodal. This is the second consecutive negative weekly reading. This brings the 12 week moving average down to 1.3%. That’s about in-line with the consensus Q4 GDP predictions and indicative of an economy that is growing, but just slightly. Here’s more via AAR: “The Association [...]
Pessimism Falls to Lowest Level Since August
Bearish sentiment fell to its lowest level since last August, as bullish sentiment increased for the fourth consecutive week, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Rail Traffic is Slowing With the Economy
Rail traffic is taking a turn for the worse in recent weeks as the economy appears to be slowing even further into Q4. The latest reading on intermodal traffic came in at -1.1%. That brings the trailing 12 week average to 1.65%. The US economy appears to be just barely treading water at this point. This is also consistent [...]
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