The October reading from the Euro-Coin index, a private expansion/contraction model developed by CEPR, is still pointing towards contraction across Europe.  The latest reading of -0.29 is slightly improved from the September reading of -0.32, but still contracting.  The recent readings are the worst since 2009 and consistent with the view that Europe remains mired in a deep economic hole. [...]

“So, broadly, although some signs of stabilization have emerged, data remain mixed and do not yet support a pickup in growth in S&P 500 forward earnings. We think the moderation in expectations is a step in the right direction, but believe there is more right-sizing to come.”

Inflation pressures remain low.

Here’s some rather disconcerting analysis from Moody’s on the state of corporate America. They highlight capital goods orders and correlation with business sales noting that such declines have only occurred in the mist of recession: “Gains in the September durable goods orders report were not enough to accelerate US business sales. Core capital goods orders tightly correlate with sales and investment, and [...]

No big changes in this data.  Rail traffic continues to expand modestly.  This week’s data from AAR showed a continuing decline in carloads, but an increase in intermodal.  We track intermodal as it has proven to be a better leading indicator of economic growth.  The 3 month moving average in intermodal now sits at 3.5% – Well below the 2010 [...]

Warren Buffett was doing his regular (quarterly?) interview on CNBC this morning and made some interesting comments on the big picture outlook.  He said: “I think there’s no question, that world wide, there is some slowing down going on.  Actually, in the USA residential housing is picking up and we’ve been waiting for that for a long time.  That will [...]

Pessimism rose to its highest level since last June as optimism fell for the fourth consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.

Rail traffic continued to show some signs of softening as intermodal traffic came in at just 2.6% year over year, but this remains positive and consistent with an economy that is marginally expanding.  The quarterly moving average dipped to 3.5% this week from 3.8% last week.  The AAR has more details on the release: “The Association of American Railroads (AAR) [...]

Rail traffic trends continue to weaken as this week’s intermodal traffic report came in at 3.8% year over year growth.  This is up slightly from last week’s reading of 2.5%, but brings the 3 month moving average down to 3.8% from 4%.  I continue to see this as being consistent with an economy that is growing, but only marginally.  Here’s [...]