http://pragcap.com/ceo-doubtful Thu, 24 May 2012 17:55:16 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 http://pragcap.com/ceo-doubtful/comment-page-1#comment-9760 Balinvadasz Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:59:57 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13906#comment-9760 I'm beginning to think that the reason insiders are not buying is simple: they're essentially fundamental traders and are not feeling the effects of increased liquidity on the "ground" (for the same reasons that ordinary folk are not better off). Stock prices may get lifted, but their sales volumes and revenues are not. I’m beginning to think that the reason insiders are not buying is simple: they’re essentially fundamental traders and are not feeling the effects of increased liquidity on the “ground” (for the same reasons that ordinary folk are not better off). Stock prices may get lifted, but their sales volumes and revenues are not.

]]> http://pragcap.com/ceo-doubtful/comment-page-1#comment-9740 TPC Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:21:07 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13906#comment-9740 I don't disagree at all. It's one of these long-term macro indicators that are kind of useless in terms of trading... I don’t disagree at all. It’s one of these long-term macro indicators that are kind of useless in terms of trading…

]]> http://pragcap.com/ceo-doubtful/comment-page-1#comment-9732 Edna Rider Wed, 09 Dec 2009 13:28:36 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=13906#comment-9732 TPC, I am bearish on the 2010-2012 timeframe, but I don't happen to think all the noise related to insider selling is that meaningful. Excluding dot com executives most executives haven't seen their large holdings drop by such a large amount in their lifetimes until 08/early 09. I am sure it was life changing. Most executives build a life around them (multiple houses, cars, girlfriends) that's very expensive. I know one with a large apt in NYC, large house in Southampton, large ski house in Aspen, large apartment in Paris. This is blindingly expensive and requires lots of cash sitting around in one of those "insured up to 50M" Chase bank accounts. If I held a large chunk of stock in my company I would likely sell too if the market swooned then recovered. It's a smart hedge (you're Mr. Risk Mgmt, after all). If the company does great, you have a job, get a raise, and likely get more options. If the company doesn't do well you'll be fired and you can retire on all the money you've socked away. So I would argue that it isn't a bullish or bearish sign: it's a sign that nobody can really see how bad the future is going to be (although it is quite clear it will be seriously bad). TPC, I am bearish on the 2010-2012 timeframe, but I don’t happen to think all the noise related to insider selling is that meaningful. Excluding dot com executives most executives haven’t seen their large holdings drop by such a large amount in their lifetimes until 08/early 09. I am sure it was life changing. Most executives build a life around them (multiple houses, cars, girlfriends) that’s very expensive. I know one with a large apt in NYC, large house in Southampton, large ski house in Aspen, large apartment in Paris. This is blindingly expensive and requires lots of cash sitting around in one of those “insured up to 50M” Chase bank accounts. If I held a large chunk of stock in my company I would likely sell too if the market swooned then recovered. It’s a smart hedge (you’re Mr. Risk Mgmt, after all). If the company does great, you have a job, get a raise, and likely get more options. If the company doesn’t do well you’ll be fired and you can retire on all the money you’ve socked away. So I would argue that it isn’t a bullish or bearish sign: it’s a sign that nobody can really see how bad the future is going to be (although it is quite clear it will be seriously bad).

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