CERIDIAN INDEX: NO DOUBLE DIP
UCLA’s Ceridian Index is pointing to further signs of recovery (via Ceridian Index):
All signs continue to point to an economy in recovery with the latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management. The July PCI climbed 1.7 percent after dropping 1.9 percent in June.
“The key takeaway from the July report is that the economy continues to recover – which is encouraging – but the pace needs to substantially pick up to put people back to work,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist. “With the unemployment rate still at 9.5 percent and consumers understandably nervous about opening their wallets, it is hard to be very optimistic about economic growth. On the other hand, there is nothing about the PCI that is supportive of the pessimistic double-dip view.”
“The PCI continues to establish credibility as a reliable, relevant economic indicator, which is critical to delivering meaningful insight into the health of the economy,” said Craig Manson, senior vice president and index expert for Ceridian. “Analysts and business leaders need reliable economic data to guide them in developing economic models, forecasts and strategic plans. With the GDP Q2 figure virtually matching the PCI’s earlier projection, it’s become increasingly clear that the PCI is a timely, leading indicator that provides meaningful insight into the current condition of the economy.”
See more here.
Just eyeballing it but sure looks like a coincident indicator to me.
So … how does one reconcile Ceridian-UCLA’s uptick report with other recent negative reports from the likes of ECRI, OECD, and the S.F Fed’s LEI?
Howzabought somebody making some sense of this, eh?
According to just about all of these sources the coast is all clear
Yeah the coast is clear now you go out in the street and play little one. You do not have to be an expert to see that this stock market is ripe for a crash. With the business climate as bad as it is we are not going to create any new jobs. You guys are traders, talk to some people who actually run businesses and have to make a profit in order to be able to pay their employees. The current business climate sucks big time. Your own government is attacking industry after industry, and constantly adding more regulations that increase costs. Even on the tout networks the real truth is coming out now, that gives you an idea of how bad it must really be. People voted for change, but they did not vote for for nationalizing as many industries as possible.
California sunshine do make people think positively!
la-la land doesn’t have L-A in it twice for nothing.
gee, it sure doesn’t feel like 06′……….but if it only was and i knew what………nevermind