Comments on: CHIP DEMAND SUPPORTS TECH STRENGTH http://pragcap.com/chip-demand-supports-tech-strength Sun, 12 Feb 2012 04:27:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: John Doodle http://pragcap.com/chip-demand-supports-tech-strength/comment-page-1#comment-10314 John Doodle Tue, 05 Jan 2010 02:17:01 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14915#comment-10314 Year on year comparison with Oct 2008 onwards and until June 2009 would benefit from extremely low base after Lehman collapsed. One should note that the incessant lines of netbooks and smart phones (starting with iPhone last year etc) we have been witnessing since June 2009 is almost unprecedented since the tech boom of 1998-2000 period. The semicon industry is notorious for being too pessimistic in downturn and over-investing in up-turn. When Micron and Hynix start projecting strong profits ahead due to anticipated rising DRAM prices, it is usually time to sell semicon stocks again. And without new product offerings with mass appeal to replace the smartphones and netbooks in the next 12 months, 2010 to me would be a great disappointment for semicon and tech in general. Year on year comparison with Oct 2008 onwards and until June 2009 would benefit from extremely low base after Lehman collapsed. One should note that the incessant lines of netbooks and smart phones (starting with iPhone last year etc) we have been witnessing since June 2009 is almost unprecedented since the tech boom of 1998-2000 period. The semicon industry is notorious for being too pessimistic in downturn and over-investing in up-turn. When Micron and Hynix start projecting strong profits ahead due to anticipated rising DRAM prices, it is usually time to sell semicon stocks again. And without new product offerings with mass appeal to replace the smartphones and netbooks in the next 12 months, 2010 to me would be a great disappointment for semicon and tech in general.

]]> By: vfsvfl http://pragcap.com/chip-demand-supports-tech-strength/comment-page-1#comment-10309 vfsvfl Mon, 04 Jan 2010 21:38:02 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=14915#comment-10309 Scalise is just a mouthpiece/cheerleader for SIA. Month-on-month Sales are always "up" in the last ~5 calendar months. Touting Nov/09 exceeded Oct/09 & Nov/08 is comparable to saying the sun came up this morning. It says even less when you remember these are 3-month averages. Even so, SIA screwed up & provided the one relevant data point you need if you want to understand chip demand: "Sales for the first 11 months of 2009 were $202.1 billion, a decline of 13.2 percent from the like period of 2008." This fall was despite 100s of billions in stimulus from governments across the globe. Invest accordingly... Scalise is just a mouthpiece/cheerleader for SIA. Month-on-month Sales are always “up” in the last ~5 calendar months. Touting Nov/09 exceeded Oct/09 & Nov/08 is comparable to saying the sun came up this morning. It says even less when you remember these are 3-month averages.

Even so, SIA screwed up & provided the one relevant data point you need if you want to understand chip demand:
“Sales for the first 11 months of 2009 were $202.1 billion, a decline of 13.2 percent from the like period of 2008.”

This fall was despite 100s of billions in stimulus from governments across the globe.

Invest accordingly…

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