COMMODITIES ROUND-UP
Dr. Copper continues to forecast a recovery. Despite being about 10% off its highs the economically sensitive metal continues to perform well. I have my doubts about the medium-term viability of copper strength, but for now money printing is certainly driving demand. The Chinese stimulus plan is more powerful than I ever could have assumed….
Crude oil surged today after an attack on a Nigerian pipeline. The huge global rally bolstered prices as well. Crude is making its usual seasonal move higher into the summer driving season. Whether it can maintain its gains after July 4th is a whole different story.
We’re seeing a similar move in the gasoline markets. Seasonal strength appears to be the primary driver here. It will be interesting to see if the U.S. consumer drives more or less in June as they avoid more expensive forms of transportation. Of course, the tax of higher gasoline prices will do nothing to help the already struggling consumer. This green shoot is certainly a Venus Fly Trap….
The big winner on the day was….drum roll please….LUMBER. That’s right, lumber. The strength in Lowes gave the entire housing market and anything housing related a jolt. It will be interesting to see whether the gains can hold. Every major spike in lumber in the last year has been a major selling opportunity. This again appears to be a major seasonal trend. The spring buying season and excellent weather across the country has give the housing market a false dawn. I don’t think prices are done going down and dreams of a sharp recovery are just that – a dream.
TPC, did you see ZH's work on the copper squeeze, about a month ago. Didn't really get the time to read it, but it might actually be a good short. China is fucked, we are fubar. For all of Bernanke's printing, he is too damn small to stop the near term deflation we will continue to experience. As debt destruction continues, dollar demand will get stronger.
Even if auctions continue fail, the printing isn't going to stop the destruction, at least not in the near term.
Hope all is well brother, the more I see this thing play out the more bearish I get about the market and our country in general. Putting off the necessary steps just means it is gonna be worse later on. Argh… Grabbed some srs at close, I'm an addict. lol.
I hadn't seen that post from ZH. I love his stuff, but I'm not gonna lie I don't read books as long as some of his posts. He is so detailed it's almost unbelievable. Good luck with the SRS. I am still not heavily short, but looking for a spot to add. I am certainly leaning short now.
Maybe the price of copper reflects something other than demand for current production needs? Like oil last year. Generally the manufacturing numbers I hear do not support your claim.