Credit Suisse: 6 Reasons to be Bullish
In the face of increasing uncertainty and economic weakness we can always count on one of the big banks to find the bullish case (via Business Insider):
“We are positive on equities as:
1) economic lead indicators, although beginning to soften, are consistent with reasonable GDP growth forecasts;
2) dovish central banks and synchronized QE are the end game;
3) rising global excess liquidity is consistent with a c10% re-rating;
4) valuations relative to bonds are still attractive;
5) equities remain the hedge if, as we expect, long-term inflation expectations rise;
6) positioning is still cautious.”
Cullen Roche
Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.
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8 Comments
They forgot to add:
“7. Our bank might need a capital infusion if the markets fall apart!”
#8. Prices are fair since the markets are perfect.
4a) The demise of the IBES/Fed Model has been greatly exaggerated.
Could someone explain how one could be positioned cautious in a tepid world economy and at the same time be around 10% of the all time high?
9) S&P 500 Q2 Earnings Growth Estimates currently at -1.1%. BULL-ISH!
A reason to be bearish… Philly Fed economic indicators.
It was -16.5 last month.
When looking back for the last 50 years or so, if you get more than -10 for 4 consecutive months, every single time there has been a recession.
If we get -10 or more each month over the summer, then by August the U.S. is in a recession.
http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/06/global-economy.html
How sad… a brand new broker fresh off the series 7 exam could tell you what is coming, if he/she paid atrention to fixed income and yield curves. I know because I freaked out my manager as a rookie broker in 08 with that observation. But hey, two of the three little pigs bought straw and sticks when they should have bought bricks (NOT BRICS). People are basically dumb when it comes to money.