Comments on: DAVID ROSENBERG: S&P 900 HERE WE COME!

By: seerandseeker

seerandseeker — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 12:22:15 +0000

I agree as well. All one needs to do is watch the man behind the curtain to see us heading in a dangerous direction. Creating a problem (terrorism, economy, pandemic) so we demand the solution which is the absolute worst for the wellbeing of the economic world we live in. History? We live in a 3 second sound bite, MTV/CNN world. How could we look even as far back as (gasp) 1930′s. That could never happen to US…
Fiat money and the rate in which it is being printed sure smells to me like the only place to hedge money is in one of the owning institutions of the Fed. Gee they are still being paid aren’t they.

By: artykay

artykay — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 03:31:10 +0000

amen brother

By: Kambo1

Kambo1 — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 07:18:11 +0000

I think “BillW” has entered the best response on this chain. Are we standing on the edge of a fiscal abyss? If you answer no, I assume you see the world in terms of single days, living in the moment. Had the government not intervened by pumping trillions of dollars into the market, would a collapse have occurred? The answer, in my opinion, is yes. BUT, we have transferred the problem from private sector balance sheets, to the very foundation of this country, our fiat money (the buck). To quote the words of a man much smarter than me, “The free market will always have dramas. Government intervention turns them into crises.” Taking into account unfunded liabilities from social entitlement programs and social safety nets, our national debt now stands at roughly 120 trillion dollars. To agree with the debasement of our currency to monetize the debt, you have to be completely ignorant of history (Rome, Pre-WWII Germany, Zimbabwe, …).
We’ve taken a free market issue (created by government intervention into it) and transferred it to the backs of the tax payers through the printing of money. It’s been tried many times before by bankrupt governments in past civilizations, pushed by politicians who do not have the integrity to tell their constituents the truth: That we’ve let our emotions rule our sense for too long, spending as if money has no value. Soon, it probably it won’t.
Before I go too far into a tirade about the Constitution and today’s political corruption, I’ll sum up my argument here: We have for the moment avoided hard times. But at what cost? We are on a road that has been traveled by those before us. History has already proven it ends in disaster. Somehow, we still manage to willfully ignore it as we charge headlong into fiscal oblivion, passing the problems and issues we have created onto the generations that will live after us. We still have time to avoid complete fiscal annihilation. BUT NOT IF WE LAUD THIS CURRENT BAILOUT INDUCED “RECOVERY”! What the hell do you think will happen when government stops inflating the currency and markets with money created at a key stroke?! Some people self-delude so well it blows my mind.

By: DR JAY

DR JAY — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 02:36:30 +0000

Boys Boys all this is very fancy lingo but that has nothing to do with reality, “Economy” is exactly similar to “Reliegon” its “True” if you believe it.Sorry to say we all have been “Made” if you know what I mean.. Well mistake number one supporting a “Economical” system that is based on fiat worthless money.That is exactly what we have now or soon to be, worthless “Economy” give it up Boys THIS CIRCUS IS A COVER UP NOT A RECOVERY, THE CRASH OF 2010, REMEMBER YOU READ IT HERE. ENJOY YOUR “ECONOMY”

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 02:22:18 +0000

must be crasze wanting idenitification.

By: Bill

Bill — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 22:43:03 +0000

He is wrong about the 1987 crash. It occurred because Reagan was leaving office and everyone knew some loser would follow.

By: Duncan

Duncan — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 14:34:23 +0000

A recovery in the sense that we are no longer staring into the abyss – not a recovery in the sense that we are a looooong way from 2006/2007.

By: prescient11

prescient11 — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 05:21:00 +0000

I’d even argue something different. Which is that, the economy has not fallen into the abyss. That right there should be worth 900-1000 on the snp.

That, plus improving earnings, employment stabilization, working through a lot of the fracking housing garbage, etc. CSCO’s comments are not to be overlooked. Chambers is one of the brightest guys on the block, speaking from direct knowledge.

Downside is that we added about $3-4T to our debt because the banks and rating agencies are fracking stupid, but so be it.

But yeah, I think 1100 is probably fair and we sure could sell down to the 900s, but that would be a great buying opportunity I think.

By: billw

billw — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 03:21:50 +0000

TPC,

There really has not been a recovery. You live in a world of traders. I read your blog daily as well as ZH,Calculated Risk, Mish and KD. You guys are the best, and your data has shown that we still have real unemployment at over 17.5%, CRE is ready to hit the fan to the tune of $400 B losses a year for the next three years, the banks are hiding over 3 million homes from the reported foreclosure numbers, consumer credit is drying up at a phenomenal rate, railroad freight traffic was down at 15% yoy for 2009. etc. When you take all of that into account I believe that the future will record that we have not had a recovery in terms of the working person. Yes the stock market had a recovery because Bernanke dropped a trillion dollars on the landscape, but if you are an average working person it is not a recovery.

By: pvk

pvk — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 22:14:26 +0000

So Rosenberg is wrong because he missed the recent rally whereas Bill Miller is a genius because he is up significantly? (Or take your pick of any high profile manager with big returns in 2009.)

But Rosenberg is WAAAY ahead of the gurus that made headlines in 2009 because his investment advice (long treasuries) actually made money for clients in 2008 instead of losing them half of their capital.