David Rosenberg’s Take on 2013
Just passing along some macro thoughts here via David Rosenberg….
“I think it will be a flat year for the broad equity market in 2013, but what worked in 2012 should work in 2013, namely “Safety and Income at a Reasonable Price” or SIRP.
“One thing is for sure … Interest rates are going nowhere”.
“I like corporate bonds for the most part. Credit spreads, as an aside, are still wide enough to present an opportunity given low and relatively stable default rates.”
“The conservative investor should maintain a defensive posture. An emphasis on fixed-income and bond proxies within the stock market. Accumulation of cash flows is key”.
“Im still a long-term bull [on commodities].”
“I do like the loonie for a whole host of reasons.”
“As a group [REITs] seem fully priced.”
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Cullen Roche
Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.
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6 Comments
Rosenberg seems to think that 2013 is going to be a “muddle through” year. and he thinks that the US can continue with QE 4, 5, 6 etc. In an attempt to depreciate the USD (more). In that regard I condider rosenberg to be VERY optimistic.
There was one very powerful indicator that makes believe that 2013 is going to be a complete Disaster.
You mean this David Rosenberg?
“Rosenberg sees 99% chance of US recession by 2012″ – Bloomberg, 6/13/11
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-13/rosenberg-sees-99-chance-of-u-s-recession-by-2012-video.html
Judge people by the quality of their forecasts, folks.
Yeah, that’s the guy!
Yep, that was his bad call… And now he is too shy to get involved in the epic battle of ECRI vs everybody else.
Yet his investment call of “income at reasonable price” is working pretty well. And he was right with UST idea.
Cullen,
With 2013 right around the corner, what would be your top 3 economic indicators for the new year? What would be your top 3 for getting the macro picture right in 2013?
Look at the ratio ocincident-to-lagging indicator.