DAVID TICE: THE S&P IS GOING BELOW 400
13 September 2009 by Cullen Roche
9 Comments
David Tice is undeterred by the 50% rally in stocks. In his latest interview he says the market will fall over 60%. Click the image for the full interview:
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Comments
Over the government’s broken printing presses!
That thing is far from broken!
I know it was supposed to be a joke (albeit a bad one). It was an allusion to:
Over my dead body!
Yeah…the governments around the world really can prevent the stock market from entering that low of a area and are very good at it…though they have a hard time manipulating the real economy (unemployment).
Yeah, I was throwing some sarcasm on top of your sarcasm. Doesn’t work so well over the internet….
I would agree with Mr. Tice wholeheartedly, at least in direction, if not magnitude, but the reality is he ALWAYS says this and being a bear, he is simply talking his book, just like any other manager would. All the reasons he gives are valid, but it doesn’t mean it’s going to happen soon. The S&P could definitely go to 1,200 first.
I still find it amazing he’s saying “I’ve never been more confident of anything in my life.” He didn’t reiterate the timeframe of 1 year like he did on the last link. Also what is interesting were the words “if” we go down then we will see unrest and financial suffering the likes of which we’ve never seen before, etc. etc. There were a couple places (albiet breif) in the interview (towards the end) where he didn’t sound quite as confident.
If you type his name in youtube, it has interviews of him in March and April where he said he was short S&P futures and common stock. I wonder how that went for him…I don’t trust managers who were short in March. Most legendary investors/economists (jim rogers, marc faber, buffet, etc.) were very bullish at that time.
James,
Prudent Bear is a short/long fund (long mining/resource stocks), though primarily short. It is intended as a hedge for stock market declines, and does not actively time markets by shifting to predominately long.
I bought $20,000 in Prudent Bear and it went up to over $33,000. The one who needs to do the timing is the buyer/seller.
funny… so one said “over my dead body” and the other said “you are not dead”
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as for the bear funds – yea but he still is interested to market going down as it is going to show his outperformance and attract more money – more fees
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those who think market is going to revisit lows are insane certifiably. Once it goes to 950 and then 850 – so many people are going to jump in and support it. in my opinion it is not gonna go to 850 i was just giving an example.