Comments on: DAVID TICE: “THE S&P IS GOING TO 400″ http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400 Fri, 25 May 2012 01:59:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: DH http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400/comment-page-1#comment-4851 DH Mon, 17 Aug 2009 13:48:10 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7481#comment-4851 Forward and trailing P/Es are worthless but Shiller's inflation-adjusted ten-year P/E is one of the most accurate valuation metrics I've seen. Earnings on that basis are $57; on a seven-year basis: $58. $75 is a fantasy. No doubt Goldman is selling into that estimate. Thanks for my sell signal Abbey. http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls Forward and trailing P/Es are worthless but Shiller’s inflation-adjusted ten-year P/E is one of the most accurate valuation metrics I’ve seen. Earnings on that basis are $57; on a seven-year basis: $58. $75 is a fantasy. No doubt Goldman is selling into that estimate. Thanks for my sell signal Abbey.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls

]]> By: PLT http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400/comment-page-1#comment-4804 PLT Sun, 16 Aug 2009 14:09:42 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7481#comment-4804 He is a pretty good technician, so he might be looking at something like this: http://blog.chart.ly/2009/08/13/comparing-the-1929-2009-major-rallies/ Pretty frightening. If you believe in history repeating itself (because of human psychology being the same) he might be right. He is a pretty good technician, so he might be looking at something like this:

http://blog.chart.ly/2009/08/13/comparing-the-1929-2009-major-rallies/

Pretty frightening. If you believe in history repeating itself (because of human psychology being the same) he might be right.

]]> By: Brian http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400/comment-page-1#comment-4803 Brian Sun, 16 Aug 2009 08:23:46 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7481#comment-4803 The one comment that really caught my attention was at the end of the interview when he stated that he was never more confident the market would go back to the March lows and break through. Wow. It would be interesting to hear his thoughts on Fed intervention. You have to wonder though what his gain is from taking such a vocal stance. He may honestly believe that Fed intervention doesn't work in matters like this but it sure as h!ll is working now. Why should it stop (unless they want it to, say, to get people to buy bonds). THere must be money to be made now with this kind of message regardless if it pans out later. Interesting. The one comment that really caught my attention was at the end of the interview when he stated that he was never more confident the market would go back to the March lows and break through. Wow. It would be interesting to hear his thoughts on Fed intervention. You have to wonder though what his gain is from taking such a vocal stance. He may honestly believe that Fed intervention doesn’t work in matters like this but it sure as h!ll is working now. Why should it stop (unless they want it to, say, to get people to buy bonds). THere must be money to be made now with this kind of message regardless if it pans out later. Interesting.

]]> By: Brian http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400/comment-page-1#comment-4802 Brian Sun, 16 Aug 2009 08:06:11 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7481#comment-4802 Unless the markets ratchet up valuations (which is happening now and may be possible with Feds providing a floor in the markets) how is it possible we can go back to SP 1400-1500? Regardless of what savings rates do, credit availability has been slashed to millions of consumers. To say that we can go back to 1400-1500 while consumers have less credit available and available home equity, regardless of what unemployment does is a pipe dream. Where's the money going to come from? Employers? Probably not since people weren't spending money they really had in the first place. The only way we get there in the next few years is with higher valuations and/or a lower importance of the domestic consumer in a global economy...but it's going to take time at least until credit starts to expand again. Then it will be time to do it all over. Unless the markets ratchet up valuations (which is happening now and may be possible with Feds providing a floor in the markets) how is it possible we can go back to SP 1400-1500? Regardless of what savings rates do, credit availability has been slashed to millions of consumers. To say that we can go back to 1400-1500 while consumers have less credit available and available home equity, regardless of what unemployment does is a pipe dream. Where’s the money going to come from? Employers? Probably not since people weren’t spending money they really had in the first place. The only way we get there in the next few years is with higher valuations and/or a lower importance of the domestic consumer in a global economy…but it’s going to take time at least until credit starts to expand again. Then it will be time to do it all over.

]]> By: X http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400/comment-page-1#comment-4782 X Sat, 15 Aug 2009 14:31:46 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7481#comment-4782 TPC - i agree, absolute earnings are not that relevant. Its the upgrade/downgrade cycle. And we will be in an upgrade cycle for several quarters. So i look to BUY .. and a correction would be welcome TPC – i agree, absolute earnings are not that relevant. Its the upgrade/downgrade cycle. And we will be in an upgrade cycle for several quarters.

So i look to BUY .. and a correction would be welcome

]]> By: X http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400/comment-page-1#comment-4781 X Sat, 15 Aug 2009 14:21:55 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7481#comment-4781 Erik - i dont think you, me (or markets) can/will wait to buy equities until the US consumer fully delevers and starts consuming again. Markets are (for good or bad) very forward looking and once the savings rate acceleration starts deccelerating (third derivative), mkts will start pricing in end demand growth. E - I beg to differ. SAC is +18% YTD and over their high water mark in many funds. And so are many other funds. Guess what that does to sentiment within a hedge fund. You are now willing to take more risk - gross and net. So, they BUY. Many of the fund managers who missed the bottom and remained cautious are OUT. Out as in close shop - Atticus, Palotta etc. What happens to the $ that they return to their investors. Flows back to other funds. So, those funds BUY Do other managers want to suffer the same fate as Atticus? No ... so they BUY. So, Buy Equities Erik – i dont think you, me (or markets) can/will wait to buy equities until the US consumer fully delevers and starts consuming again. Markets are (for good or bad) very forward looking and once the savings rate acceleration starts deccelerating (third derivative), mkts will start pricing in end demand growth.

E – I beg to differ. SAC is +18% YTD and over their high water mark in many funds. And so are many other funds. Guess what that does to sentiment within a hedge fund. You are now willing to take more risk – gross and net. So, they BUY.

Many of the fund managers who missed the bottom and remained cautious are OUT. Out as in close shop – Atticus, Palotta etc. What happens to the $ that they return to their investors. Flows back to other funds. So, those funds BUY

Do other managers want to suffer the same fate as Atticus? No … so they BUY.

So, Buy Equities

]]> By: E http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400/comment-page-1#comment-4778 E Sat, 15 Aug 2009 12:51:10 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7481#comment-4778 too much greed still out there maybe if the die hard day traders and the HFT machines are turned off, the mkt can retest but who the heck knows apparantly the brightest and the best (SAC capital and likes) are (and have been since OCT 08) sitting this one out..... everyone else, day traders, swing traders, well, seems like they have a gambling problem too much greed still out there

maybe if the die hard day traders and the HFT machines are turned off, the mkt can retest

but who the heck knows

apparantly the brightest and the best (SAC capital and likes) are (and have been since OCT 08) sitting this one out…..

everyone else, day traders, swing traders, well, seems like they have a gambling problem

]]> By: jocko_the_monkey http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400/comment-page-1#comment-4775 jocko_the_monkey Sat, 15 Aug 2009 12:10:29 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7481#comment-4775 Oh and duh...guess what the historical basis for S&P earnings is? GAAP, not operating earnings.....so all you bullsuckers are singing the praises of one of the most overvalued markets in history. Oh and duh…guess what the historical basis for S&P earnings
is? GAAP, not operating earnings…..so all you bullsuckers are singing the praises of one of the most overvalued markets in history.

]]> By: jocko_the_monkey http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400/comment-page-1#comment-4774 jocko_the_monkey Sat, 15 Aug 2009 12:01:35 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7481#comment-4774 Tice isn't saying anything radical. None of you know the difference between operating and GAAP earnings....you had better learn. GS $75 "operating"= Tice's $50 GAAP and he is being far too kind. Tice isn’t saying anything radical. None of you know the
difference between operating and GAAP earnings….you
had better learn. GS $75 “operating”= Tice’s $50 GAAP
and he is being far too kind.

]]> By: E http://pragcap.com/david-tice-the-sp-is-going-to-400/comment-page-1#comment-4772 E Sat, 15 Aug 2009 11:50:02 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7481#comment-4772 400, sure based on single digit PEs but, the grand casino is alive and well, greed is now stronger than fear apple is 170 amazon is 90 these are pre-credit crisis highs no one cares, at least not the day trader, the hedgies, the swing traders, the whatever we are a disaster away from a meltdown, but no one knows what the disaster is or when it will happen mkt can go to 12,000 or can go to 7,000 it is nothing more than a crap shoot the sad thing is, the consumer has not learned.... cash for clunkers hilarious!, i pay as a tax payer 4,500 for someone else to benefit, but that someone else who is buying a 35,000 car is now deleting savings (or incurring more debt) by 30,500...so stupid dont yah think what about just 4,500 cash for everyone to do as they please? or cash for candy? 400, sure based on single digit PEs

but, the grand casino is alive and well, greed is now stronger than fear

apple is 170
amazon is 90

these are pre-credit crisis highs

no one cares, at least not the day trader, the hedgies, the swing traders, the whatever

we are a disaster away from a meltdown, but no one knows what the disaster is or when it will happen

mkt can go to 12,000 or can go to 7,000

it is nothing more than a crap shoot

the sad thing is, the consumer has not learned….

cash for clunkers hilarious!, i pay as a tax payer 4,500 for someone else to benefit, but that someone else who is buying a 35,000 car is now deleting savings (or incurring more debt) by 30,500…so stupid dont yah think

what about just 4,500 cash for everyone to do as they please?

or cash for candy?

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