Feb: http://pragcap.com/david-rosenberg-sp-900-here-we-come

It just seems to be his way of saying: “Listen, this really is getting insane, so watch out. Do not get too excited over this irrational, grossly overvalued market, as it is guaranteed to end when everyone expects things to just get more overvalued. When it does end, the dust of an illusion (that rivals a Copperfield show) will have settled, and life will suck, except for those of us who have reserved a seat for the end.”

Aside, I think we are naive, even Rosenberg, to buy into this idea that somehow stimulus, and the crafty “central planners,” have fueled this year long parade. Investors deserve the credit for this show, and they’ve earned it. I think human psychology is, fundamentally, what is actually responsible here. The rally started before any measure (except TARP months before), was even announced, let alone implemented. Government just ensured that everyone didn’t collapse at the same time, that the system’s implosion was suspended, and that everyone was awarded more time to look at their cards and change their bets. Stimulus ensured that an environment conducive to heedlessness, greed, and euphoria could develop.

Rosenberg is not wrong at hinting the parade will end, and likely very soon. But it will end when psychology changes; when investors once again start to believe more in risk than in opportunity, when they fear losing money more than losing out on making money. History cautions against being fooled into thinking this will take some epic event, shock, or “surprise.” At tops, markets usually just need a few days of more sell orders than buy orders.