Comments on: DEEP THOUGHTS ON IDENTIFYING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES http://pragcap.com/deep-thoughts-on-identifying-inestment-opportunities Sun, 12 Feb 2012 13:32:07 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: TPC http://pragcap.com/deep-thoughts-on-identifying-inestment-opportunities/comment-page-1#comment-7641 TPC Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:12:20 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11313#comment-7641 Oil trades like an an ultra high beta stock. Difficult to trade, hard to manage risk and impossible to predict price action based on fundamentals. I tend to stay away from the oil markets. I feel much the same about the gold market in fact although I'd say that I find gold trading even more confusing. Oil trades like an an ultra high beta stock. Difficult to trade, hard to manage risk and impossible to predict price action based on fundamentals.

I tend to stay away from the oil markets. I feel much the same about the gold market in fact although I’d say that I find gold trading even more confusing.

]]> By: Leland http://pragcap.com/deep-thoughts-on-identifying-inestment-opportunities/comment-page-1#comment-7635 Leland Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:52:42 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11313#comment-7635 The other day Warren Buffet said he thought the storm has passed. Personally, I don't think this is a normal storm; it is more like a hurricane. The relative calm of the past few months has been due to our being in the eye of the storm but the other edge of the eye, and the rest of the storm, are fast approaching. Anyone not prepared when it gets here will be in a world of hurt. The other day Warren Buffet said he thought the storm has passed. Personally, I don’t think this is a normal storm; it is more like a hurricane. The relative calm of the past few months has been due to our being in the eye of the storm but the other edge of the eye, and the rest of the storm, are fast approaching. Anyone not prepared when it gets here will be in a world of hurt.

]]> By: stevie b. http://pragcap.com/deep-thoughts-on-identifying-inestment-opportunities/comment-page-1#comment-7624 stevie b. Thu, 22 Oct 2009 08:56:28 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11313#comment-7624 Having managed money on Wall St for 30 years and as a psychology graduate, I have particular empathy with 3/ above. The rest are all pretty good, especially gauging the optimum moment to act in a contrarian manner, often staggering the investment in 1/3rds on the way down and being happy never to get the opportunity to invest the other 2/3rds! However, one thing is missing. Rule no.8 should be a comprehensive understanding of technical analysis, essential both as a timing tool to invest and as a way of limiting risk. Having managed money on Wall St for 30 years and as a psychology graduate, I have particular empathy with 3/ above. The rest are all pretty good, especially gauging the optimum moment to
act in a contrarian manner, often staggering the investment in 1/3rds on the way down and being happy never to get the opportunity to invest the other 2/3rds!

However, one thing is missing. Rule no.8 should be a comprehensive understanding of technical analysis, essential both as a timing tool to invest and as a way of limiting risk.

]]> By: Jack http://pragcap.com/deep-thoughts-on-identifying-inestment-opportunities/comment-page-1#comment-7622 Jack Thu, 22 Oct 2009 08:19:36 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11313#comment-7622 What's your feeling about investing in oil? Normally, a commodity should be priced based solely on supply/demand fundamentals, but oil is unique in that it has become an asset class unto itself, acting as an almost proxy for money like gold. With the dollar situation, oil is attracting a lot of speculation and with that, the potential for whacky mispricings. Based on the terrible global fundamentals, oil should be much cheaper, but it's taking its cues from dollar movements. Do you have any advice on making macro bets on possible FED movements that may cause big dollar, oil, and gold movements? What’s your feeling about investing in oil? Normally, a commodity should be priced based solely on supply/demand fundamentals, but oil is unique in that it has become an asset class unto itself, acting as an almost proxy for money like gold. With the dollar situation, oil is attracting a lot of speculation and with that, the potential for whacky mispricings. Based on the terrible global fundamentals, oil should be much cheaper, but it’s taking its cues from dollar movements. Do you have any advice on making macro bets on possible FED movements that may cause big dollar, oil, and gold movements?

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