DEUTSCHE BANK: GET READY FOR S&P 1325 THIS YEAR
14 March 2010 by Cullen Roche
8 Comments
Binky Chadha, chief U.S. equity strategist at Deutsche Bank discusses why he thinks the rally isn’t entirely over and continued skepticism and short covering could drive the market up to 1325.
Source: Bloomberg TV
Short covering is going to take us up another 200 points on the snp eh?
Is this guy a frigging idiot. Are there any shorts left?
Please. This call, or at least the reasons for this level, are as bad as Rosenberg’s market timing.
SPY will go up on no volume as JPM guns small block orders at the close. Or something like that.
Beware the robots!!
I think the next upmove will be powered by pro-shorts and newbie bulls. All the big name traders are looking at the sentiment index, chart formations, etc and are looking for a decent decline. My thinking is it will be a quick sharp decline which will generate a swift reversal in sentiment similar to the decline from 1150 to 1046. I don’t think we’ll have as deep a decline as January but it will be sharp (like 1-3 days max). We’ll probably see pros cover while new bears try to push their luck. Newbie longs will probably be scare to buy in as they are thinking double tops. The reversal will be sharp and push the index higher from newbie bears covering and pro-longs. Once we get pass 1150 again, the newbie longs will come back in drove to ride it up again. This is the last stage of this cyclical bulls so we need to get as many newbies hurt as possible. Looking for mid May to June for the “TOP” for this run. We’ll revert to a cyclical bear within this secular bear.
You take investment advice from someone named Binky?
Obviously these guys would like to see the S&P at 1325 because it will pad their earnings. They need the rally to continue because their balance sheets are still underwater from mortgage backed securities. This rally won’t end until something frightens the hedge funds and small investors out of the market again. Until then, it feels like the banks own this market and drive it higher.
Yawn…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_o7kFptCNE0&refer=home
First Doll, now this guy…
Continued skepticism? That’ll only get you so far. AAII and Investors intelligence point to high complacency, VIX is in the teens, and cash levels are at lows last seen since the previous top. That doesn’t sound like continued skepticism.
Though small investors are continually shorting this rally (a bullish tidbit), maybe it’s because they see the obvious… lots of people are out of jobs and growth rates are not going to be the same anymore. Also, maybe we are seeing less participation by the mom-and-pop investor. They’re busy trying to fund their retirement now that they’ve been slapped in the face twice by bubbles in the span of a decade.
I’m still waiting for 1,650 in 2008.
Don’t underestimate the masses – I’m one of them – I know.
- still got money, go to the mall and get that iPhone
- took your money out of stocks at the bottom, time to put it back in
“With numerous unequivocal examples of bubbles in the history of capital markets, starting with Dutch tulip mania (1634-37), progressing through the Mississippi bubble (1719-20) the South Sea bubble (1720), the Internet bubble in the late 1990s, and the housing bubbles of the mid 2000s, it appears that human traders never learn from history as the speculative element overpowers rationality each and every time.”
See: ZeroHedge
IN YOUR DREAMS DEUTSCHE.