Comments on: DID YESTERDAY MARK THE TOP? http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top Fri, 25 May 2012 03:04:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: jt26 http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top/comment-page-1#comment-6396 jt26 Thu, 24 Sep 2009 23:15:42 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=9524#comment-6396 TPC - what's your thoughts on asset allocation within the risk aversion trade? Bond mix (I assume 3-5 yr TBond?)? Cheers. TPC – what’s your thoughts on asset allocation within the risk aversion trade? Bond mix (I assume 3-5 yr TBond?)? Cheers.

]]> By: john desmond http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top/comment-page-1#comment-6390 john desmond Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:22:42 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=9524#comment-6390 a drop of 170 points out of almost 10,000 is nothing. what bear market? thank God we got away from the doom and gloom constantly coming from Fox News for months. I bought all sorts of stuff and have done OK. Sorry for many that they listened to the bears and sold off when the market was down and didn't have the stomach to come back in. Just don't listen to the idiots on TV who really don't know shit. Lou Dobbs isn't bad. But many are just air heads out of universities that learn to sound like 'journalists'. Let Oprah make your picks for you laughs. I'm doing fine. a drop of 170 points out of almost 10,000 is nothing. what bear market? thank God we got away from the doom and gloom constantly coming from Fox News for months. I bought all sorts of stuff and have done OK. Sorry for many that they listened to the bears and sold off when the market was down and didn’t have the stomach to come back in. Just don’t listen to the idiots on TV who really don’t know shit. Lou Dobbs isn’t bad. But many are just air heads out of universities that learn to sound like ‘journalists’. Let Oprah make your picks for you laughs. I’m doing fine.

]]> By: Jimmy http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top/comment-page-1#comment-6388 Jimmy Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:11:46 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=9524#comment-6388 But if we're looking for an intermediate term top around now then there are negative divergences that could confirm a potential move down (+10% correction?) The crude oil, Baltic Dry index, and China stock market haven't confirmed the recent move up. something to take note to see whether the market can rally again off short term oversold. had a hunch we could get a +10% correction in the 4th qtr. maybe we're getting an early correction or I'm wrong. But if we’re looking for an intermediate term top around now then there are negative divergences that could confirm a potential move down (+10% correction?) The crude oil, Baltic Dry index, and China stock market haven’t confirmed the recent move up. something to take note to see whether the market can rally again off short term oversold. had a hunch we could get a +10% correction in the 4th qtr. maybe we’re getting an early correction or I’m wrong.

]]> By: The Eye http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top/comment-page-1#comment-6382 The Eye Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:14:43 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=9524#comment-6382 Henry is right... it went like this (my September 1st comment above): S&P hit closing high on August 27th And there was a 4 day sell off. From the low on September 2nd the market rose +7.7% to close at 1,071.66 points at new annual highs (in closing prices) on September 22nd.... That's right... two days ago. I'm not a day trader, but long-term... I don't care what the market does interim, but you still have to watch. The "buy dips" mentality has to wear off. You heard it here first... I'll "relax" when financials fall and the market moves up. Remember the tech bubble? The sector that leads the market into the abyss rarely leads it out... forget about banks... or really do your research ,oP Henry is right… it went like this (my September 1st comment above): S&P hit closing high on August 27th And there was a 4 day sell off. From the low on September 2nd the market rose +7.7% to close at 1,071.66 points at new annual highs (in closing prices) on September 22nd…. That’s right… two days ago.

I’m not a day trader, but long-term… I don’t care what the market does interim, but you still have to watch. The “buy dips” mentality has to wear off. You heard it here first… I’ll “relax” when financials fall and the market moves up.

Remember the tech bubble? The sector that leads the market into the abyss rarely leads it out… forget about banks… or really do your research ,oP

]]> By: Henry http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top/comment-page-1#comment-6380 Henry Thu, 24 Sep 2009 20:56:34 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=9524#comment-6380 Look like 3 times now we move sideways, drop for about 3 days then go back up...for the last time too I remember market dropped on good news then go to 1070...Unless we break 1040, this trend isn't over for now. As for the market, they do what they do. Sometimes they go up with Bernanke's speech. Other times, they go down regardless of his positive message all along. Look like 3 times now we move sideways, drop for about 3 days then go back up…for the last time too I remember market dropped on good news then go to 1070…Unless we break 1040, this trend isn’t over for now. As for the market, they do what they do. Sometimes they go up with Bernanke’s speech. Other times, they go down regardless of his positive message all along.

]]> By: Jimmy http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top/comment-page-1#comment-6379 Jimmy Thu, 24 Sep 2009 20:17:56 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=9524#comment-6379 thus far it's been buying/covering on the dip on short term oversold conditions since the market bottomed in March 9th. with the RIMM earnings just released no doubt they'll be some more selling tomorrow but we're getting close to short term oversold readings soon. until proven otherwise, let the prevailing trend guide where the market is going for now. thus far it’s been buying/covering on the dip on short term oversold conditions since the market bottomed in March 9th. with the RIMM earnings just released no doubt they’ll be some more selling tomorrow but we’re getting close to short term oversold readings soon. until proven otherwise, let the prevailing trend guide where the market is going for now.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top/comment-page-1#comment-6375 TPC Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:47:41 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=9524#comment-6375 I still like playing the risk aversion trade. Not necessarily getting short equities, but playing the long dollar trade, long bonds, short canadian $, long VIX, etc etc. There are ways to get short without taking on the risk. My portfolio has underperformed for well over a month, but all things considered is doing quite well. If we dip in the coming weeks I'll be set-up nicely heading into year-end and the next earnings season. I still like playing the risk aversion trade. Not necessarily getting short equities, but playing the long dollar trade, long bonds, short canadian $, long VIX, etc etc. There are ways to get short without taking on the risk. My portfolio has underperformed for well over a month, but all things considered is doing quite well. If we dip in the coming weeks I’ll be set-up nicely heading into year-end and the next earnings season.

]]> By: jturner http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top/comment-page-1#comment-6374 jturner Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:41:22 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=9524#comment-6374 I think there's a very decent chance it was the top, but I am still leery of playing the market from the short side for longer term positions because of all the govt intervention and rules changes. Instead, for investors I think a safer plan is cash, gold, and gold mining stocks. It is pretty clear yet again from the Fed's statement yesterday that they are going to do whatever is necessary to try to prevent deflation, and this means a lot more money printing. I recently read some good articles at <a href="http://www.goldalert.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.goldalert.com</a> about the Fed's policies and potential effects on the dollar and the gold price. There are many serious consequences for the future of the global economy based on the often reckless and unprecedented actions of the Fed. I think there’s a very decent chance it was the top, but I am still leery of playing the market from the short side for longer term positions because of all the govt intervention and rules changes. Instead, for investors I think a safer plan is cash, gold, and gold mining stocks. It is pretty clear yet again from the Fed’s statement yesterday that they are going to do whatever is necessary to try to prevent deflation, and this means a lot more money printing. I recently read some good articles at http://www.goldalert.com about the Fed’s policies and potential effects on the dollar and the gold price. There are many serious consequences for the future of the global economy based on the often reckless and unprecedented actions of the Fed.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top/comment-page-1#comment-6373 TPC Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:31:19 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=9524#comment-6373 Any downside could be fairly shallow. My earnings analysis is setting up for another quarter of blow-outs. I'll have a formal report out early next week....You won't want to be short into the upcoming earnings season. Any downside could be fairly shallow. My earnings analysis is setting up for another quarter of blow-outs. I’ll have a formal report out early next week….You won’t want to be short into the upcoming earnings season.

]]> By: jt26 http://pragcap.com/did-yesterday-mark-the-top/comment-page-1#comment-6372 jt26 Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:03:49 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=9524#comment-6372 Regardless of whether the Fed is right or wrong (assuming they can be) remember their *mandate* is currency stability AND *US* job stability. The unfortunate answer is they can't have both (80's they chose monetary; 90's onward they chose the latter ... because they *politically* could. It's pretty clear they can't win on either account and now it is down to trying to minimize the damage on both. The likeliest scenario is 70's all over again except replace (oil embargo + Vietnam war with private deleveraging + demographic liabilities). Therefore, market participants will trade appropriately ... I don't think they believed the Fed or gov anymore in 1970 then they do now or vice-versa ... so not much has changed. I would keep an eye on politics as in the 70s; be very wary about what unions, state budgets etc. are doing as well. Regardless of whether the Fed is right or wrong (assuming they can be) remember their *mandate* is currency stability AND *US* job stability. The unfortunate answer is they can’t have both (80′s they chose monetary; 90′s onward they chose the latter … because they *politically* could. It’s pretty clear they can’t win on either account and now it is down to trying to minimize the damage on both. The likeliest scenario is 70′s all over again except replace (oil embargo + Vietnam war with private deleveraging + demographic liabilities). Therefore, market participants will trade appropriately … I don’t think they believed the Fed or gov anymore in 1970 then they do now or vice-versa … so not much has changed. I would keep an eye on politics as in the 70s; be very wary about what unions, state budgets etc. are doing as well.

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