Comments on: DON’T TRIM THOSE HEDGES JUST YET

By: TPC

TPC — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 06:59:23 +0000

I hedge. That is very clear. I am never all in on anything, but I certainly always lean in a direction which has been pretty clear….

By: jt26

jt26 — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 02:40:18 +0000

Thanks TPC. Agree, it’s undersirable to use your actual portfolio, but a generalization that relates to your blog posts are helpful. For example, “short GS” is not the same detail as “short XLF”; “long INTC” is not the same as “long SMH”. It’s possible to use the closest ETF portfolio as a broad asset generalization. Similarily for options, “write covered call, SPX, Dec09″ is not the same as “write covered call SPX” or “far out of the money call DE” or even “far out of the money call, farm/construction equipment”. All the best.

By: James

James — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 02:05:07 +0000

TPC I do believe you make pretty decent calls but I also don’t think you trust them fully enough to take full advantage and you seem to urge a lot of caution which doesn’t lead to high rewards. Like you said you sat on the side lines when the markets were crashing, yet you didn’t short. And I truly doubt you began buying all you could in March, even though you turned bullish. I have the same problem though, it is called risk aversion. Then again, I am only 19 and don’t have a hell of a lot of money to gamble with…but try and trust yourself more and actually trade on that trust. I turned very bullish in March, and I should have put a lot of money into the markets, but didn’t. Though I did buy Ford at like 3 dollars and sold around 6, but that was my best trade…I am beginning to turn bearish for the first time in a while, and will probably begin buying puts shortly (like in a week or two)…anyway good luck and I read your blog every day because I do believe you are in tuned and you have good blog entries.

By: TPC

TPC — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 01:24:09 +0000

jt,

I am working on a model portfolio which I plan on disclosing on a weekly basis in the next few weeks. I think readers will find it really helpful.

And I don’t disclose my actual portfolio because my strategies are proprietary and I would be doing my clients a great disservice by disclosing positions and revealing the methods I use.

By: TPC

TPC — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 01:22:17 +0000

Glad to see some people have stuck with me form the beginning! Thanks for the kinds words OR.

By: jt26

jt26 — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 00:45:49 +0000

re:”because I don’t only use global macro (which is all I talk about here at TPC) it’s a little difficult to come up with the model portfolio that appropriately reflects my actual performance …”

TPC, is there some reason you don’t show a complete model portfolio? Unless you’re running a big market moving hedge fund what can be lost with a little transparency (you can always delay your portfolio update by 48 hours as well … go ahead front run us!)? Any reader that wants to track your performance can do so if they wish.

The other advantage of showing a model portfolio is that it clearly shows when you are taking a clear position as opposed to blogging about some uncooked investment thesis (PS nothing wrong with that). Some of the readers’ criticisms may be misplaced because they are not clear when you are just blogging (“I wouldn’t feel comfortable shorting XLF”) versus clear positioning (today: 60% cash, 10% long EWZ, 30% short JPY; yesterday: 100% long TLT).

Keep up the good work.

By: OriginalReader

OriginalReader — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 00:18:40 +0000

I was a reader of TPC back when you had the original blog format (which I much preferred btw) and I have to come to TPC’s defense here. TPC was not only bearish for the first 2 months of the year, but called the bottom nearly to the day. It is the best call I have ever seen a blogger make. He claims to have called the crash last year, but I wasn’t around for that so I can’t verify. Anyhow, I remember his bottom call only because I didn’t buy anything and I kicked myself for it. He turned neutral after a 20% move in stocks before turning bullish again before each of the two earnings seasons. He has only been short during this rally at one point and it just so happened to be the largest move down in early June (he turned bullish heading into that earnings season). Following his moves would have netted you 75% of the entire 60% move while sitting out all of the losses of Jan/Feb and even getting short for a brief period in June. I can’t be positive what your returns would be but north of 20% is an almost guarantee.

TPC was bearish from 1000 to about 1050, but recently turned bullish heading into this earnings season – another prescient call. He stresses risk adjusted returns and his returns have clearly been stupendous this year. Anyone who can’t see that has not been following the site very long.

Personally, I am extremely greatful for the hard work he puts in. Thanks and keep up the great work.

By: TPC

TPC — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:57:32 +0000

Thanks PLT. X and TRY are both fairly new readers and blindly ignored both of my earnings calls and instead prefer to focus on the fact that I have a macro bearish view – which regular readers know has little impact on my actual short-term trading. I think they’re highly misinformed or prefer not to give me credit for my bullish calls over the last few months. Why they do that is beyond me.

Regardless, it’s nice to know that there are readers like you who don’t have a directional bias or an axe to grind.

By: PLT

PLT — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:25:56 +0000

TPC,

It is your site, and do what you think is best, but I would also prefer that you ignore the bashers. Regular readers know that your information and predictions have been very good, and if someone doesn’t like it they should just go elsewhere, rather than bash. I don’t think you need to respond to these jerks in order to keep your readership, but that is just my $.02 (now only worth $.01, the way the printing presses are churning out money).

By: TPC

TPC — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:01:08 +0000

Also, your comparison of me to Rosey is entirely off base. He has been bearish the entire way up. I have been bullish on and off at strategic and important points.