http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a2X3hNaWcbeg

I know you follow fundamentals more than any other indicator. I wanted to point out though that a rising wedge in technical analysis most likely will result in a break towards the primary trend (i.e. bearish):

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l8gHrhQiXlE/Sm8jFjysLaI/AAAAAAAAAfM/cXAtOIrlXJI/s1600-h/afl.png

I would expect this to normalize a bit in the coming quarters as analysts play catch up.

it technically ends when Wal-Mart reports, but there is no real end. Instead, it peaks this week and tapers off over the coming two weeks.

I love the idea of developing your own indicator – fun and useful. I went back in the archives to see if I could find some of your older ER data. I found one that you published in January (23rd?). My observation is that the slope of the ER has been positive (rising) since early December. There is one drop in late May early June, but that is it. In the January commentary you mentioned that the ER “has only recently turned positive”. This would mean, I would guess, that either EPS or analysts estimates were negative and have now turned positive. I guess you’d have a problem if they were both negative!

This brings me to my questions:

- It looks like it is the slope that is most important – correct?
- The ER seems to have been “bullish” starting at least in December and “missed” (probably too negative of a word here) the March low. The indicator hinges on analyst numbers so I can see the ratio being useful in these earnings weeks, but I am trying to figure out how to interpret the ratio at other times?

Great job coming up with the index. Thanks.

-tyler

Good call abt the earlier “dont short” guidance!

Nice work, keep it up! Thats why you see us frequenters coming back for more!