ECRI: A DOUBLE DIP IS OUT OF THE QUESTION
19 February 2010 by Cullen Roche
10 Comments
The ECRI is reiterating their claim that the economy will begin to slow-down by mid-year, however, they are also saying that the potential for a double dip is “out of the question.” Their latest reading on the Weekly Leading Indicator shows growth continuing to slip. The gauge fell to 128.4 from last week’s reading of 130. The index’s annualized growth rate declined to 17.1% from 19.6% in the week prior. ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan says the recovery “will begin to ease off by mid-2010.” He added:
“with the 6 percent GDP growth and the jobless rate having peaked back in October… a double dip is still out of the question.”
Source: ECRI
“with the 6 percent GDP growth and the jobless rate having peaked back in October… a double dip is still out of the question.”
LOL
As long as we borrow more and more money but not paying back, We will NEVER have a recession. I think these economists’ model is simple as that.
The fact that they overstate the actual GDP number which was 5.7% (we’ll see about that in exactly one week) and assume that the unemployment rate has peaked makes me feel like they are nervous.
Throw in that “a double dip is out of the question” and it’s starting to sound like a slope of hope to me.
As long as we keep seasonally adjusting the unemployment numbers so that they show a gain in on paper and we keep offering coupons for appliances to kick up GDP numbers on paper, then there is no way we can have a double dip on paper. Why do you post this jack ass on your site?
I would comment, but it would violate the TPC ROE…
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSNYS00543920090925
“…Last week, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan told
Reuters that the group expects an “unstoppable” recovery with
“no relevant roadblocks.” Fears over mounting unemployment,
debt-laden consumers, and dips in recovery are typical of
recessionary times, he said.
“With WLI growth climbing to a fresh record high, the
economic recovery is far from fragile,” Achuthan said on
Friday….”
Engage by all means! I am on the ready to call these guys out when and if the market dips and they revert to their double talk about the “unstoppable recovery” mixed with their “slowing growth rate” that is supposedly leading to a much weaker economy. These guys have perfectly hedged themselves.
JR
My thoughts as well. How is it possible that we are going to get a slowing in the economy when it was an unstoppable juggernaut just a few months ago?
It’s really amazing what these pathological liars will say with a straight face. And how they’re not called out for this crap by the MSM and held to account for their previous B.S. And that they’re not completely discredited for it and banished from making money on it.
John Lounsbury “re-posts” a picture of the ECRI leading indicator you cite…
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/55308-ecri-leading-indicator-dropping-sharply
HOWEVER, the ultimate point of our this discussion is to make money in the markets, right?
You can analyse and project earnings (or GDP growth), but the most important thing is to understand the secular nature of the stock market. Ed Easterling of CrestmontResearch “wrote the book” on this subject and I highly recommend it.
However, if you’re time constrained or so included, you can get a good gist of the book by reading my “What’s Your Decade, Man?” article on my blog (http://mileshoffman.blogspot.com/2009/11/whats-your-decade-man.html ), or on SeekingAlpha (http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/189638-milescfa/28015-what-s-your-decade-man ).
pass that green shoot over here
Mish had a great post exposing the ECRI BS:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/look-at-ecris-recession-predicting.html