ECRI GROWTH PLUNGES TO -9.8%
16 July 2010 by Cullen Roche
12 Comments
The ECRI’s growth rate contracted at -9.8% this week – just 0.2% from a level that has always preceded recession (via Reuters).
“A measure of future U.S. economic growth was unchanged in the latest week, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 120.6 for the week ended July 9, unchanged from the previous week, which was originally reported as 121.5. The index was last below 120.6 in the week of July 24, 2009, when it measured 120.3, according to ECRI. The index’s annualized growth rate fell to minus 9.8 percent from minus 9.1 percent the previous week, originally reported as minus 8.3 percent.”
Source: Reuters
Well may as well put this one in the bag… unless we get a miraculous recovery in this thing in the near future it’s only pointing in one direction… Run for cover, Save your women and children!!!
Can we officially chalk this recovery chatter up as a loss?
Captain..she can’ee take any more…she’s gonna blow!
What I find interesting about this reading is the fact that it encapsulates the ~5% rally last week in the market yet the annualized growth rate nonetheless fell precipitously WoW.
Wondering if it captures (if ECRI even uses these in its composite) yesterday’s abhorrent Philly Fed and Empire data points.
But Caroline Baum says that the yield curve can’t possibly get to be inverted, therefore we can’t possibly get a recession. She says so, therefore it must be true.
Double-Dippers Are All Wet Ignoring Yield Curve: Caroline Baum
After all, this is nothing different than the last 7 recessions, right? Good grief, when are people going to come to the full realization that this is nothing like anything we’ve seen since the GD?
Gee, this is what $4 trillion of deficits bought us. Hopefully someone will prevent the idiots from digging the hole any deeper. I mean the advice that financial advisors give to all people with major debt problems is to quit spending. IMHO that applies to nations as well.
Oh, pardon me. For a second I thought you were talking about the war in Iraq.
That just bought Iraqi kids schools though.
Like Iraq didn’t have schools?
The real way to fix this mess is to penalize companies from shipping jobs overseas, don’t allow companies to sell their cr*p in the US when they ship jobs overseas, require companies that are growing and doing well to increase wages even in a recession then people have more money to spend, give employers a tax break for hiring people (I believe Obamma is doing this), make the rich pay more of the share of lower income/mid class people who cant afford to pay health ins, require companies over a certain level of profits to pay a pension and increase wages, and on and on. You simply cannot let Capitalism alone rule without regulations. We saw what it did to us with the housing crisis. Regulations are needed, and I believe some have been passed now. But, it’s time America started being a great country for the ENTIRE country, not just the well off. And companies also should not be allowed to ask about availability of a candidate during job interviews. I’ve had many companies discriminate against me because I can’t work Saturdays for religious observance which is protected by law, but HR isn’t educated enough to know this. EOE employers are really just labeling themselves this when they are really mostly all cheaters. My point is regulations are good in the US because companies that run for profit will do anything to get what they want and that is more $$. Many people are blind thinking the US is the best in everything, and that simply isn’t true. Were a nation of debtors, ad the rich often cheat and do anything to become richer and don’t care about others enough to pay a livable salary.
I have a question for you, is “ignorance truly bliss?” If you want socialism, move!!!
Time is the only answer – all the lever pulling, dial turning by the FED is only going to make it worse – IMHO
Sorry, the real way to fix things is a magic wand. 1st limit lobbyist spending to $1million per year for an entire industry group association & $100,000.00 per firm all with full disclosure to the public as to what the the lobbyists is trying to accomplish on a public web site. At present all the regulators are bought and paid for by wall street, big pharma, and big business with the sole purpose of eliminating competition and guiding how regulations are written and enforced. The U.S.A. hasn’t been a democracy or free market capitalist society for about 100 years. That is why we are now a 3rd world corrupt nation on a fast down hill slide. Just look, our president is not a citizen, has a stolen social security number that was issued in New England in the 1880′s. He was brought up as a socialist and refuses to do the one thing government is supposed to do… protect our borders. Now he is starting a race war because his goal must be to destroy America for Muslim rule.