Comments on: ECRI: RECOVERY FAR FROM FRAGILE, INFLATION SET TO JUMP http://pragcap.com/ecri-recovery-far-from-fragile-inflation-set-to-jump Fri, 25 May 2012 04:14:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Van http://pragcap.com/ecri-recovery-far-from-fragile-inflation-set-to-jump/comment-page-1#comment-6651 Van Sat, 03 Oct 2009 03:09:13 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=10033#comment-6651 at least the index finally 'slipped', we'll see next week. Institutional Accumulation/Distribution from www.stocktiming.com: http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SsX_TNg92KI/AAAAAAAAE30/kQbKeiaOB4s/s1600/3%5B2%5D.png at least the index finally ‘slipped’, we’ll see next week.

Institutional Accumulation/Distribution from http://www.stocktiming.com:

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SsX_TNg92KI/AAAAAAAAE30/kQbKeiaOB4s/s1600/3%5B2%5D.png

]]> By: jt26 http://pragcap.com/ecri-recovery-far-from-fragile-inflation-set-to-jump/comment-page-1#comment-6636 jt26 Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:09:52 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=10033#comment-6636 I wondering if the Fed govs are playing good copy bad copy. Some say "we will be accommodative to cure unenployment and keep inflation expectations >0"; others say "we'll be vigilent on inflation [ GS, buy enough assets to keep global balance sheets from free-falling but don't f..king make too much money and speculate us back to 2008]". This is good strategy and politics. But, the control knob is very very fragile because humans are highly non-linear decision makers. But, the G20 is about as united, at least as 500 years of mercantilism could have forseen, and people ignore that. There hasn't been a major war in 40 years between the countries that make up 99.9% of the dominant (or soon to be dominant) currencies. Having said that the US has and is in decline, but it is no different then within the US economy over the last 80 years; Michigin rose Mississipi declined; California rose and Pennsy declined. Some areas will experience inflation (San Francisco), others deflation (Flint). I wondering if the Fed govs are playing good copy bad copy. Some say “we will be accommodative to cure unenployment and keep inflation expectations >0″; others say “we’ll be vigilent on inflation [ GS, buy enough assets to keep global balance sheets from free-falling but don't f..king make too much money and speculate us back to 2008]“. This is good strategy and politics. But, the control knob is very very fragile because humans are highly non-linear decision makers. But, the G20 is about as united, at least as 500 years of mercantilism could have forseen, and people ignore that. There hasn’t been a major war in 40 years between the countries that make up 99.9% of the dominant (or soon to be dominant) currencies. Having said that the US has and is in decline, but it is no different then within the US economy over the last 80 years; Michigin rose Mississipi declined; California rose and Pennsy declined. Some areas will experience inflation (San Francisco), others deflation (Flint).

]]> By: gaius marius http://pragcap.com/ecri-recovery-far-from-fragile-inflation-set-to-jump/comment-page-1#comment-6635 gaius marius Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:46:34 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=10033#comment-6635 i think this is really useful stuff for understanding the other side of the trade. ECRI is echoing the reported concerns of the fed governors re: inflationary pressures. against this background, what chances are there for continuing the expansion of the fed balance sheet? what chances are there for another round of fiscal stimulus? if you believe that ECRI has modeled its LEI under circumstances where the monetary transmission mechanism of credit expansion was healthy, then this is an important divergence between policymaking backdrop and reality that could yield soem really profitable trading. i think this is really useful stuff for understanding the other side of the trade. ECRI is echoing the reported concerns of the fed governors re: inflationary pressures. against this background, what chances are there for continuing the expansion of the fed balance sheet? what chances are there for another round of fiscal stimulus?

if you believe that ECRI has modeled its LEI under circumstances where the monetary transmission mechanism of credit expansion was healthy, then this is an important divergence between policymaking backdrop and reality that could yield soem really profitable trading.

]]> By: jt26 http://pragcap.com/ecri-recovery-far-from-fragile-inflation-set-to-jump/comment-page-1#comment-6631 jt26 Fri, 02 Oct 2009 17:19:43 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=10033#comment-6631 The Fed policy target is for inflation. This index doesn't seem to predict the amount of inflation so where's the news? Also, if high unemployment is politically acceptable, people will be surprised by the global economic strength - as long as there is general confidence. Why do you think Porsche can sell $100k Autos to $500k corporate laywers, while Soulemon in Chad is starving on <$1 day and barely able to afford food because of the declining US$? The Fed policy target is for inflation. This index doesn’t seem to predict the amount of inflation so where’s the news? Also, if high unemployment is politically acceptable, people will be surprised by the global economic strength – as long as there is general confidence. Why do you think Porsche can sell $100k Autos to $500k corporate laywers, while Soulemon in Chad is starving on <$1 day and barely able to afford food because of the declining US$?

]]> By: James http://pragcap.com/ecri-recovery-far-from-fragile-inflation-set-to-jump/comment-page-1#comment-6624 James Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:26:45 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=10033#comment-6624 I wonder if they were calling for the same thing in early 2008 too...I'd like to see a history of their predictions. I am not absolutely denying it...but it is not something I believe in. Though I strongly believe the government has tried very hard and trying to convince everyone that the economy is recovering and letting things fall now would be very counterproductive to their actions. I wonder if they were calling for the same thing in early 2008 too…I’d like to see a history of their predictions. I am not absolutely denying it…but it is not something I believe in. Though I strongly believe the government has tried very hard and trying to convince everyone that the economy is recovering and letting things fall now would be very counterproductive to their actions.

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