ECRI: RECOVERY TO KEEP GOING
The ECRI’s leading indicator is undeterred despite the recent market swoon. Their weekly leading indicator continues to point to recovery. The ECRI said its leading index rose to 131.4 versus last week’s reading of 132.2. The annualized growth rate declined for a seventh straight week to 22.7, but remains robust.
ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan says the recovery is still on track:
“With the WLI staying near the previous week’s 83-week high, the U.S. business cycle recovery is set to keep going in the months ahead.”
Contrary to David Rosenberg, Lakshman Achuthan is also encouraged by this morning’s GDP report:
“With GDP growth rebounding 12 percentage points in just three quarters, the V-shaped recovery foreseen last summer by the WLI is coming into focus.”
TPC, tell Achuthan to wait until it hits 150 and then take it out of the oven. Unless he wants the roast medium in which case he should wait until it hits 155. I’m pretty sure that Achuthan’s “ECRI leading indicator” is also known as a thermometer, and the “economy” is a rib roast.
I’m not sure what that means but it was hilarious!
TPC,
I wonder if the correlation to the market is not the WLI but rather the growth rate direction?
His commentary seems to rely on the LI more than growth rate. Though he does a bit of double talking some times….
my guess is that contrary to conventional expectations, jobs are about to increase significantly; the current downswing may be anticipation of negative earnings impact due to new labor costs as well as the Greece sovereign issue debt plus China credit tightening/cancelling military exchange program.
http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1703/
so sad, all those clowns really got some mini bulls to buy the high, so sad, but which is worse ? GS and JPM upgrading the CAT, FCX and OIH baskets on the first week ? or that pig from that 6pm show that kept his buy buy buy, on every piece of crap paper trading up there ? and now has the nerve to say we rolled over, what an ass.
how about that crew from the 5pm show ? specially that puts that always puts this “im serious” face after every horrible call, what a mess…
thak G-D we didn’t fall for this garbage and kept our short.
guess we’ll keep shorts until all the clowns above say we have to sell, can’t wait for some good buy spots.
thank you tpc for all the info
Absolutely Ike. We’ve had a pretty solid pulse on this market for a long time. Happy to be able to help everyone decipher this tough market.
TPC, I wonder if the market is so “tough” (as you say) because we have access 24 hours a day to so many different sources. If you’re an information hound, as I am, I can scan 25 blogs a day and get 25 different opinions. I read a dozen newsletters and they all seem to echo each other (13D, Grants, etc.) — beware the inflation. If you read the bearish economists (Shilling, Rosie, Dent, Prechter)–it’s a world of deflation. Which is it? Neither, in my opinion: the market stalls at around 1000…for years. The government has finally figured out (the idiots that they are) that Wall St basically loves a big bonfire. Burn it high; burn it low — make money up and down (a great New Yorker piece on this a year ago). Government figured out that this is what they must regulate. Stop the bonfires. Sadly I love the bonfires. But I think they’re history.