ECRI: THE RECOVERY IS STILL ON TRACK
The ECRI’s leading index of economic indicators eased from its recent high, but is still forecasting a stronger than expected recovery. Reuters reports:
A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped to an 8-week low, sending its yearly growth rate further off record levels reached seven weeks ago, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 127.3 in the week to Nov. 6, from a downwardly revised 128.7 the previous week, which the group originally reported as 128.8.
The index’s yearly growth rate fell to a seven-week low of 25.3 percent from 26.2 percent last week, which was revised lower from an original 26.3 percent.
ECRI has recently projected that the recovery will be the fastest since the early 1980s, and said the current report is in step with that forecast.
Managing Director at ECRI, Lakshman Achuthan, says the recovery remains on track:
“For four straight weeks WLI growth has eased from a record high, but still remains consistent with a further near-term acceleration in U.S. economic growth.”
The weekly index was pushed down by lower commodity prices, Achuthan said.
So does the OECD LEI pointing towards strong recovery
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/55/51/44025808.pdf
Last GDP figures for Europe .4% driven by larger unemployment,decrease in corporate and private investments and higher government expenditures that is more public debts.
Overall an increasing mortgage on the long term growth
Interesting that the ECRI is flat-lining/showing signs of rolling over…
If it peaks out here and declines, that’s one of my signals to do something about my bearishness on equities (the leading indicators peaking out, has been a good timing signal in Japan over the last X years)…Same with the CLI (though their data is always much further behind, e.g. November release for September report)