Eurocoin Index Points to Stabilization in Eurozone Economies

Just a brief indicator update here.  The December Eurocoin index came in at -0.2 compared to -0.29 in November.  That reading is still consistent with a contracting economy though marginally less so than previous readings and off the lows of -0.33 seen in August of 2012.

Here’s a bit more detail via Eurocoin:

  • In December the €-coin indicator remained substantially stable, at negative levels, for the fifth month running (‑0.27%, as against -0.29% in November).

  • The indicator was buoyed up by the results of the business opinion surveys conducted, which were less unfavourable than in the past, and by the easing of the tensions on financial markets; on the other hand the indicators of activity in the manufacturing sector continued to be weak.


    Chart via Orcam Investment Research:


Got a comment or question about this post? Feel free to use the Ask Cullen section, leave a comment in the forum or send me a message on Twitter.

Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

More Posts - Website

Follow Me:

  • Conventional Wisdumb


    Please excuse my ignorance with this metric. Is this a measure of velocity? Perhaps it is the “coin” reference that is throwing me off.


  • The Dork of Cork.

    The best indicator that I can see is the IEAs diesel (work) consumption charts.
    Here is Portugal for example

  • The Dork of Cork.

    The only busy parts of the euro disaster is the places where the collected money flows into.

    “The network of trams in Brussels is booming. Indeed, many projects have been launched in recent years and are, to this day, in various stages of completion”

    Its another market state disaster – not unlike the USA in some respects – which is not a coincidence of course.
    It benefits the few at the expense of the many.

    Hinterlands / defined political nation states no longer trade with other hinterlands – they are farmed by a ever more distant central authority.

    Can I have my semi-nation state back please ?
    The loss of nation state like redundancy was the direct cause of the Euro and indeed global market state nightmare.
    Europe is the real heart of darkness.

  • Conventional Wisdumb

    Never mind.

    €-coin in brief
    €-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth, computed each month by the staff of the Banca d’Italia. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic picture for the euro area.
    €-coin collates a large collection of statistical data (industrial production, business surveys, stock market and financial data, demand indicators, and more) and extracts the information that is relevant to forecast GDP. It tracks underlying GDP growth, preceding official GDP releases by several months. Essentially, the index:

    (i) gives a monthly “smoothed” estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area;
    (ii) highlights the underlying trend by adjusting the growth rate for short-term fluctuations and measurement errors; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.
    For further technical details on €-coin, see “New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy working paper series (Temi di Discussione della Banca d’Italia) no. 631 or CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 5633