EVENING READING
19 January 2010 by Cullen Roche
7 Comments
- Inflation myth and reality - Hussman
- Shanghai mortgages rose 1600% in 2009 - China Econ Review
- Jim Rogers says Chinese real estate in a bubble - Bloomberg
- Uncorrelated assets are back - PIMCO
- Why stocks are still undervalued - Telegraph



TPC,
don’t know if you saw this; I sure am glad they come out with this stuff after a 68% upmove in 9 mos
sorry forget th link…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5_2eIRE836E
I always love all these valuation metrics that are based on future estimates. It’s almost laughable to make investments based on such projections. Have we not learned that economists and analysts are very very bad at their jobs?
TPC,
Do you still believe that the dollar will weaken to 1.60 agains the Euro in 1H 2010 as you wrote in your investment outlook? Seems to be going in the other direction. What will send the dollar down and then back up in 2H?
That call on the Euro is not looking good. I may have underestimated the impact of Greece on the Eurozone. I do not feel good about the $1.60 target. I still like the call to be short most currencies against the dollar for the year, however.
Greece gets the headlines for weakness in the Euro but Greece only contributes 3% to Eurozone GDP. California, on the other hand, contributes 12% to US GDP and that state is in serious trouble. Which is a bigger problem? The answer will aid in telling you which currency will strengthen/weaken.
interesting study from McKinsey
Debt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/freepass_pdfs/debt_and_deleveraging/debt_and_deleveraging_full_report.pdf